Related papers: Tail behavior of sums and differences of log-norma…
Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…
Let $\{X_1, X_2, ... \}$ be a sequence of dependent heavy-tailed random variables with distributions $F_1, F_2,...$ on $(-\infty,\infty)$, and let $\tau$ be a nonnegative integer-valued random variable independent of the sequence $\{X_k, k…
In this paper we consider the problem of computing tail probabilities of the distribution of a random sum of positive random variables. We assume that the individual variables follow a reproducible natural exponential family (NEF)…
In this note we prove bounds on the upper and lower probability tails of sums of independent geometric or exponentially distributed random variables. We also prove negative results showing that our established tail bounds are asymptotically…
The exact expression for the probability density $p_{_N}(x)$ for sums of a finite number $N$ of random independent terms is obtained. It is shown that the very tail of $p_{_N}(x)$ has a Gaussian form if and only if all the random terms are…
In this work, we propose a class of importance sampling (IS) estimators for estimating the right tail probability of a sum of continuous random variables based on a change of variables to $L^1$ polar coordinates in which the radial and…
We consider a family of multivariate distributions with heavy-tailed margins and the type I elliptical dependence structure. This class of risks is common in finance, insurance, environmental and biostatistic applications. We obtain the…
The right tail asymptotic series consisting of attenuating exponential terms are derived for the densities of Galton-Watson processes with fractional probability generating functions. The frequencies in the exponential factors form fractal…
We develop an asymptotic theory for extremes in decomposable graphical models by presenting results applicable to a range of extremal dependence types. Specifically, we investigate the weak limit of the distribution of suitably normalised…
We propose a variational tail bound for norms of random vectors under moment assumptions on their one-dimensional marginals. A simplified version of the bound that parametrizes the ``aggregating distribution'' using a certain pushforward of…
This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of higher-order conditional tail moments, which quantify the contribution of individual losses in the event of systemic collapse. The study is conducted within a framework comprising two…
For a centered $d$-dimensional Gaussian random vector $\xi =(\xi_1,\ldots,\xi_d)$ and a homogeneous function $h:R^d\to R$ we derive asymptotic expansions for the tail of the Gaussian chaos $h(\xi)$ given the function $h$ is sufficiently…
We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation…
We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent $\alpha$ having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of $\alpha$ on the expectation and higher moments of…
We consider multivariate extreme value statistics for independent but nonidentically distributed random vectors. In particular, the data may have varying tail copulas and also heteroscedastic marginal distributions. Assuming smoothly…
In this paper we derive the asymptotic behaviour of the survival function of both random sum and random maximum of log-normal risks. As for the case of finite sum and maximum investigated in Asmussen and Rojas-Nandaypa (2008) also for the…
Tail Gini functional is a measure of tail risk variability for systemic risks, and has many applications in banking, finance and insurance. Meanwhile, there is growing attention on aymptotic independent pairs in quantitative risk…
In this paper, we compute multivariate tail risk probabilities where the marginal risks are heavy-tailed and the dependence structure is a Gaussian copula. The marginal heavy-tailed risks are modeled using regular variation which leads to a…
This note presents an operational measure of fat-tailedness for univariate probability distributions, in $[0,1]$ where 0 is maximally thin-tailed (Gaussian) and 1 is maximally fat-tailed. Among others,1) it helps assess the sample size…
In many areas of interest, modern risk assessment requires estimation of the extremal behaviour of sums of random variables. We derive the first order upper-tail behaviour of the weighted sum of bivariate random variables under weak…