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While standard estimation assumes that all datapoints are from probability distribution of the same fixed parameters $\theta$, we will focus on maximum likelihood (ML) adaptive estimation for nonstationary time series: separately estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-24 Jarek Duda

We develop an adaptive monotone shrinkage estimator for regression models with the following characteristics: i) dense coefficients with small but important effects; ii) a priori ordering that indicates the probable predictive importance of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-08 Zhuang Ma , Dean Foster , Robert Stine

This paper presents a tractable algorithm for estimating an unknown Lipschitz function from noisy observations and establishes an upper bound on its convergence rate. The approach extends max-affine methods from convex shape-restricted…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-20 Gábor Balázs

In this paper, we discuss the application of extreme value theory in the context of stationary $\beta$-mixing sequences that belong to the Fr\'echet domain of attraction. In particular, we propose a methodology to construct bias-corrected…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-24 Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Armelle Guillou

Conformal prediction provides prediction sets with coverage guarantees. The informativeness of conformal prediction depends on its efficiency, typically quantified by the expected size of the prediction set. Prior work on the efficiency of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Yunzhen Yao , Lie He , Michael Gastpar

Quantum amplitude estimation is a key sub-routine of a number of quantum algorithms with various applications. We propose an adaptive algorithm for interval estimation of amplitudes. The quantum part of the algorithm is based only on…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-06-20 Yunpeng Zhao , Haiyan Wang , Kuai Xu , Yue Wang , Ji Zhu , Feng Wang

Simultaneous occurrences of extreme events need not imply symmetric or reciprocal tail dependence. However, most existing measures of extremal dependence are inherently symmetric and hence often fail to capture directional influence in tail…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Bikramjit Das , Xiangyu Liu

The estimation of the extremal dependence structure is spoiled by the impact of the bias, which increases with the number of observations used for the estimation. Already known in the univariate setting, the bias correction procedure is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-04-03 Anne-Laure Fougères , Laurens de Haan , Cécile Mercadier

This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Laura Liu , Yulong Wang

In this paper, we consider a functional linear regression model, where both the covariate and the response variable are functional random variables. We address the problem of optimal nonparametric estimation of the conditional expectation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-02 Gaëlle Chagny , Anouar Meynaoui , Angelina Roche

Hermite and Laguerre $\beta$-ensembles are important and well studied models in random matrix theory with special cases $\beta=1,2,4$ corresponding to eigenvalues of classical random matrix ensembles. It is well known that the largest…

This paper describes an estimator of the additive components of a nonparametric additive model with a known link function. When the additive components are twice continuously differentiable, the estimator is asymptotically normally…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Joel L. Horowitz , Enno Mammen

For a risk vector $V$, whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents' exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-04-12 Oliver Kley , Claudia Kluppelberg

The task for a general and useful classification of the tail behaviors of probability distributions still has no satisfactory solution. Due to lack of information outside the range of the data the tails of the distribution should be…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-23 Pavlina Jordanova

Multi-fidelity methods that use an ensemble of models to compute a Monte Carlo estimator of the expectation of a high-fidelity model can significantly reduce computational costs compared to single-model approaches. These methods use oracle…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-12 Thomas Dixon , Alex Gorodetsky , John Jakeman , Akil Narayan , Yiming Xu

The performance of Least Squares (LS) estimators is studied in isotonic, unimodal and convex regression. Our results have the form of sharp oracle inequalities that account for the model misspecification error. In isotonic and unimodal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-09 Pierre C. Bellec

The risk of catastrophes is related to the possibility of occurring extreme values. Several statistical methodologies have been developed in order to evaluate the propensity of a process for the occurrence of high values and the permanence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-08 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Abdelaati Daouia , Simone A. Padoan , Gilles Stupfler

We provide in this paper a fully adaptive penalized procedure to select a covariance among a collection of models observing i.i.d replications of the process at fixed observation points. For this we generalize previous results of Bigot and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-05 Rolando Biscay , Hélène Lescornel , Jean-Michel Loubes

It was shown that when one disposes of a parametric information of the truncation distribution, the semiparametric estimator of the distribution function for truncated data (Wang, 1989) is more efficient than the nonparametric one. On the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-03 Saida Mancer , Abdelhakim Necir , Souad Benchaira