Related papers: Prospect Agents and the Feedback Effect on Price F…
Positive feedback trading, which buys when prices rise and sells when prices fall, has long been criticized for being destabilizing as it moves prices away from the fundamentals. Motivated by the relationship between positive feedback…
We demonstrate that minority mechanisms arise in the dynamics of markets because of effects of price impact; accordingly the relative importance of minority and delayed majority mechanisms depends on the frequency of trading. We then use…
In speculative markets, risk-free profit opportunities are eliminated by traders exploiting them. Markets are therefore often described as "informationally efficient", rapidly removing predictable price changes, and leaving only residual…
The relationship between price volatilty and a market extremum is examined using a fundamental economics model of supply and demand. By examining randomness through a microeconomic setting, we obtain the implications of randomness in the…
In this paper we extend the series of our studies on the properties of an interacting particle model for market microstructure. In our earlier work we defined a Markov process on the majority opinion of the agents, obtained the transition…
Stock correlations is crucial to asset pricing, investor decision-making, and financial risk regulations. However, microscopic explanation based on agent-based modeling is still lacking. We here propose a model derived from minority game…
According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations…
We study the relation between the trading behavior of agents and volatility in toy markets of adaptive inductively rational agents. We show that excess volatility, in such simplified markets, arises as a consequence of {\em i)} the neglect…
This paper introduces an agent-based artificial financial market in which heterogeneous agents trade one single asset through a realistic trading mechanism for price formation. Agents are initially endowed with a finite amount of cash and a…
We define and study a rather complex market model, inspired from the Santa Fe artificial market and the Minority Game. Agents have different strategies among which they can choose, according to their relative profitability, with the…
The valuation process that economic agents undergo for investments with uncertain payoff typically depends on their statistical views on possible future outcomes, their attitudes toward risk, and, of course, the payoff structure itself.…
A minimal model of a market of myopic non-cooperative agents who trade bilaterally with random bids reproduces qualitative features of short-term electric power markets, such as those in California and New England. Each agent knows its own…
Constant and symmetric price impact functions, most commonly used in agent-based market modelling, are shown to give rise to paradoxical and inconsistent outcomes in the simplest case of arbitrage exploitation when open-hold-close actions…
We propose an artificial market model based on deterministic agents. The agents modify their ask/bid price depending on past price changes. The temporal development of market price fluctuations is calculated numerically. A probability…
Collective phenomena with universal properties have been observed in many complex systems with a large number of components. Here we present a microscopic model of the emergence of scaling behavior in such systems, where the interaction…
A model of fluctuations in the market price including many deterministic dealers, who predict their buying and selling prices from the latest price change, is developed. We show that price changes of the model is approximated by ARCH(1)…
While the investors' responses to price changes and their price forecasts are well accepted major factors contributing to large price fluctuations in financial markets, our study shows that investors' heterogeneous and dynamic risk aversion…
A numerical agent-based spin model of financial markets, based on the Potts model from statistical mechanics, with a novel interpretation of the spin variable (as regards financial-market models) is presented. In this model, a value of the…
A prototype model of stock market is introduced and studied numerically. In this self-organized system, we consider only the interaction among traders without external influences. Agents trade according to their own strategy, to accumulate…
We present and study a Minority Game based model of a financial market where adaptive agents -- the speculators -- interact with deterministic agents -- called producers. Speculators trade only if they detect predictable patterns which…