Related papers: Limits to solar cycle predictability: Cross-equato…
A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in…
It is proposed that the observed near-surface inflows towards the active regions and sunspot zones provide a nonlinear feedback mechanism that limits the amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton-type solar dynamo and determines the variation of the…
We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the azimuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a…
The flux transport dynamo, in which the poloidal magnetic field is generated by the Babcock--Leighton mechanism and the meridional circulation plays a crucial role, has emerged as an attractive model for the solar cycle. Based on…
The magnetic flux cancellation on the Sun plays a crucial role in determining the manner in which the net magnetic flux changes in every solar cycle, affecting the large scale evolution of the coronal magnetic fields and heliospheric…
At present, Babcock-Leighton flux transport solar dynamo models appear as the most promising model for explaining diverse observational aspects of the sunspot cycle. The success of these flux transport dynamo models is largely dependent…
We begin with a review of the predictions for cycle~24 before its onset. After summarizing the basics of the flux transport dynamo model, we discuss how this model had been used to make a successful prediction of cycle~24, on the assumption…
The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…
The predictability, or lack thereof, of the solar cycle is governed by numerous separate physical processes that act in unison in the interior of the Sun. Magnetic flux transport and the finite time delay it introduces, specifically in the…
The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series…
The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle. In addition, the polar field reversals at…
Having advanced knowledge of solar activity is important because the Sun's magnetic output governs space weather and impacts technologies reliant on space. However, the irregular nature of the solar cycle makes solar activity predictions a…
Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…
The polar magnetic field precursor is considered to be the most robust and physics-based method for the prediction of the next solar cycle strength. However, to make a reliable prediction of a cycle, is the polar field at the solar minimum…
Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society. Predictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are currently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar dynamo. Interested in…
The average tilt angle of sunspot groups emerging throughout the solar cycle determines the net magnetic flux crossing the equator, which is correlated with the strength of the subsequent cycle. I suggest that a deep-seated, non-local…
The butterfly diagram of the solar cycle exhibits a poleward migration of the diffuse magnetic field resulting from the decay of trailing sunspots. It is one component of what is sometimes referred to as the "rush to the poles". We…
The dynamic activity of stars such as the Sun influences (exo)planetary space environments through modulation of stellar radiation, plasma wind, particle and magnetic fluxes. Energetic stellar phenomena such as flares and coronal mass…
In order to match observed properties of the solar cycle, flux-transport dynamo models require the toroidal magnetic flux to be stored in a region of low magnetic diffusivity, typically located at or below the bottom of the convection zone.…
Although systematic measurements of the solar polar magnetic field exist only from mid 1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field…