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Condensation is the phenomenon whereby one of a sum of random variables contributes a finite fraction to the sum. It is manifested as an aggregation phenomenon in diverse physical systems such as coalescence in granular media, jamming in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-01-20 Juraj Szavits-Nossan , Martin R. Evans , Satya N. Majumdar

A recent line of empirical studies has demonstrated that SGD might exhibit a heavy-tailed behavior in practical settings, and the heaviness of the tails might correlate with the overall performance. In this paper, we investigate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Krunoslav Lehman Pavasovic , Alain Durmus , Umut Simsekli

We derive the essentials of the skewed weak lensing likelihood via a simple Hierarchical Model. Our likelihood passes four objective and cosmology-independent tests which a standard Gaussian likelihood fails. We demonstrate that sound weak…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-02 Elena Sellentin , Catherine Heymans , Joachim Harnois-Déraps

Long-time tails, or algebraic decay of time-correlation functions, have long been known to exist both in many-body systems and in models of non-interacting particles in the presence of quenched disorder that are often referred to as Lorentz…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2024-11-14 T. R. Kirkpatrick , D. Belitz

A statistical description of heavy particles suspended in incompressible rough self-similar flows is developed. It is shown that, differently from smooth flows, particles do not form fractal clusters. They rather distribute inhomogeneously…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 J. Bec , M. Cencini , R. Hillerbrand

Real-world data are long-tailed, the lack of tail samples leads to a significant limitation in the generalization ability of the model. Although numerous approaches of class re-balancing perform well for moderate class imbalance problems,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Yanbiao Ma , Licheng Jiao , Fang Liu , Shuyuan Yang , Xu Liu , Puhua Chen

Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-20 J. L. Wadsworth , J. A. Tawn

We derive upper bounds on the tail conditional expectation of binomial and Poisson random variables. Those upper bounds are subsequently employed to the problem of obtaining non-asymptotic lower bounds on the probability that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-07 Christos Pelekis

We study aggregation as a mechanism for the creation of complex networks. In this evolution process vertices merge together, which increases the number of highly connected hubs. We study a range of complex network architectures produced by…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 M. J. Alava , S. N. Dorogovtsev

Just like the degrees of human and animal interaction networks, the distribution of the times between interactions is known to often be right-skewed and fat-tailed. Both these distributions affect epidemic dynamics strongly, but, as we show…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-14 Naoki Masuda , Petter Holme

Convolutions of long-tailed and subexponential distributions play a major role in the analysis of many stochastic systems. We study these convolutions, proving some important new results through a simple and coherent approach, and showing…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-29 Sergey Foss , Dmitry Korshunov , Stan Zachary

The paper focuses on a class of light-tailed multivariate probability distributions. These are obtained via a transformation of the margins from a heavy-tailed original distribution. This class was introduced in Balkema et al. (J.…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-26 Guus Balkema , Paul Embrechts , Natalia Nolde

US public health authorities claim imposing quarantines on healthcare workers returning from West Africa is incorrect according to science. Their positions rely upon a set of studies and experience about outbreaks and transmission…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-11-07 Yaneer Bar-Yam

In this paper, we will give a sufficient condition for a non-negative random variable $X$ to be heavy tailed by investigating the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the probability distribution function. We focus on the relation between the…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-02 Kenji Nakagawa

In the presence of a layer of metaprobabilities (from uncertainty concerning the parameters), the asymptotic tail exponent corresponds to the lowest possible tail exponent regardless of its probability. The problem explains "Black Swan"…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-10-09 Nassim N. Taleb

We obtain concentration and large deviation for the sums of independent and identically distributed random variables with heavy-tailed distributions. Our concentration results are concerned with random variables whose distributions satisfy…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-27 Milad Bakhshizadeh , Arian Maleki , Victor H. de la Pena

The study of loss function distributions is critical to characterize a model's behaviour on a given machine learning problem. For example, while the quality of a model is commonly determined by the average loss assessed on a testing set,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Etrit Haxholli , Marco Lorenzi

In this paper, we consider the linearly reinforced and the once-reinforced random walk models in the transient phase on trees. We show the large deviations for the upper tails for both models. We also show the exponential decay for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-15 Yu Zhang

The upper extremes of a Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution are known to exhibit under general conditions a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. More generally, if the Markov chain is…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Johan Segers

Nowadays in density estimation, posterior rates of convergence for location and location-scale mixtures of Gaussians are only known under light-tail assumptions; with better rates achieved by location mixtures. It is conjectured, but not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-24 Zacharie Naulet , Judith Rousseau