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We prove that the random variable $\ct=\argmax_{t\in\rr}\{\aip(t)-t^2\}$ has tails which decay like $e^{-ct^3}$. The distribution of $\ct$ is a universal distribution which governs the rescaled endpoint of directed polymers in 1+1…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-15 Jeremy Quastel , Daniel Remenik

We establish upper and lower bounds with matching leading terms for tails of weighted sums of two-sided exponential random variables. This extends Janson's recent results for one-sided exponentials.

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-28 Jiawei Li , Tomasz Tkocz

Financial time series have been investigated to follow fat-tailed distributions. Further, an empirical probability distribution sometimes shows cut-off shapes on its tails. To describe this stylized fact, we incorporate the cut-off effect…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-26 Yusuke Uchiyama , Takanori Kadoya

We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-03-21 Henrik O. Rasmussen , Paul Wilmott

Given an arbitrary continuous probability density function, it is introduced a conjugated probability density, which is defined through the Shannon information associated with its cumulative distribution function. These new densities are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-26 H. M. de Oliveira , R. J. Cintra

We construct an example of a continuous centered random process with light tails of finite-dimensional distribution but with heavy tail of maximum distribution.

Probability · Mathematics 2012-08-31 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

Overload-induced cascading failures can cause extreme disruptions in a wide range of networked systems, such as power grids, transportation networks, or financial systems. Empirical studies across domains report that the size of such…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-01-06 Agnieszka Janicka , Fiona Sloothaak , Maria Vlasiou , Bert Zwart

Long tails in the velocity distribution are observed in plasmas and gravitational systems. Some experiments and observations in far-from-equilibrium conditions show that these tails behave as 1/v^(5/2). We show here that such heavy tails…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2016-05-20 L. Brenig , Y. Chaffi , T. M. Rocha Filho

Correlation mixtures of elliptical copulas arise when the correlation parameter is driven itself by a latent random process. For such copulas, both penultimate and asymptotic tail dependence are much larger than for ordinary elliptical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-12-21 Hans Manner , Johan Segers

We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-10-04 Igor Halperin

We propose a transformation capable of altering the tail properties of a distribution, motivated by extreme value theory, which can be used as a layer in a normalizing flow to approximate multivariate heavy tailed distributions. We apply…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-02 Tennessee Hickling , Dennis Prangle

For many optimization algorithms the time-to-solution depends not only on the problem size but also on the specific problem instance and may vary by many orders of magnitude. It is then necessary to investigate the full distribution and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-12-08 Damian S. Steiger , Troels F. Rønnow , Matthias Troyer

Distributions exhibiting fat tails occur frequently in many different areas of science. A dynamical reason for fat tails can be a so-called superstatistics, where one has a superposition of local Gaussians whose variance fluctuates on a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Christian Beck

Consider a random walk with a drift to the right on $\{0,\ldots,k\}$ where $k$ is random and geometrically distributed. We show that the tail $P[T>t]$ of the length $T$ of an excursion from $0$ decreases up to constants like $t^{-\varrho}$…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-13 Nina Gantert , Achim Klenke

Anomalous diffusion or, more generally, anomalous transport, with nonlinear dependence of the mean-squared displacement on the measurement time, is ubiquitous in nature. It has been observed in processes ranging from microscopic movement of…

Although the origin of the fat-tail characteristic of the degree distribution in complex networks has been extensively researched, the underlying cause of the degree distribution characteristic across the complete range of degrees remains…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-11-07 Bin Zhou , Petter Holme , Zaiwu Gong , Choujun Zhan , Yao Huang , Xin Lu , Xiangyi Meng

This paper provides a detailed description for the asymptotics of exponential functionals of random walks with light/heavy tails. We give the convergence rate based on the key observation that the asymptotics depends on the sample paths…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-29 Wei Xu

We consider a one-dimensional random walk among biased i.i.d. conductances, in the case where the random walk is transient but sub-ballistic: this occurs when the conductances have a heavy-tail at $+\infty$ or at $0$. We prove that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-16 Quentin Berger , Michele Salvi

The study of heavy-tailed distributions in economic and financial systems has been widely addressed since financial time series has become a research subject.After the eighties, several "highly improbable" market drops were observed (e.g.…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-02-02 João P. da Cruz , Pedro G. Lind

In a general class of one dimensional random differential equation the convergence of the distribution function of the solution to stationary state distribution is studied. In particular it is proved the boundedness respectively the…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-07-07 Gyorgy Steinbrecher , Xavier Garbet , Boris Weyssow