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In this paper, we aim to solve Bayesian Risk Optimization (BRO), which is a recently proposed framework that formulates simulation optimization under input uncertainty. In order to efficiently solve the BRO problem, we derive nested…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-17 Sait Cakmak , Di Wu , Enlu Zhou

This article presents a constrained policy optimization approach for the optimal control of systems under nonstationary uncertainties. We introduce an assumption that we call Markov embeddability that allows us to cast the stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Sungho Shin , François Pacaud , Emil Contantinescu , Mihai Anitescu

In this work, we present a new class of models, called uncertain-input models, that allows us to treat system-identification problems in which a linear system is subject to a partially unknown input signal. To encode prior information about…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-09-12 Riccardo Sven Risuleo , Giulio Bottegal , Håkan Hjalmarsson

Sparsity constraints on the control inputs of a linear dynamical system naturally arise in several practical applications such as networked control, computer vision, seismic signal processing, and cyber-physical systems. In this work, we…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-11 Rupam Kalyan Chakraborty , Geethu Joseph , Chandra R. Murthy

A lower bound is an important tool for predicting the performance that an estimator can achieve under a particular statistical model. Bayesian bounds are a kind of such bounds which not only utilizes the observation statistics but also…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-02 Shuo Tang , Gerald LaMountain , Tales Imbiriba , Pau Closas

The state estimation problem for nonlinear systems with stochastic uncertainties can be formulated in the Bayesian framework, where the objective is to replace the state completely by its probability density function. Without the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-04 Lukas Ecker , Kurt Schlacher

A nonintrusive model order reduction method for bilinear stochastic differential equations with additive noise is proposed. A reduced order model (ROM) is designed in order to approximate the statistical properties of high-dimensional…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-11 M. A. Freitag , J. M. Nicolaus , M. Redmann

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is an effective method for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions with a wide range of applications for example in robotics, system design and parameter optimization. However, scaling BO to problems…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-01-22 Lukas P. Fröhlich , Edgar D. Klenske , Christian G. Daniel , Melanie N. Zeilinger

We present a class of algorithms for state estimation in nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach is based on a variational Lagrangian formulation that casts Bayesian inference as a sequence of entropic trust-region updates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Hany Abdulsamad , Ángel F. García-Fernández , Simo Särkkä

Optimal experimental design (OED) seeks experiments expected to yield the most useful data for some purpose. In practical circumstances where experiments are time-consuming or resource-intensive, OED can yield enormous savings. We pursue…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-30 Xun Huan , Youssef M. Marzouk

Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is a popular iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-18 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani , Pär Stockhammar

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It is common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-30 James E. Johndrow , Jonathan C. Mattingly , Sayan Mukherjee , David Dunson

This paper proposes a new framework for the optimization of excitation inputs for system identification. The optimization problem considered is to maximize a reduced Fisher information matrix in any of the classical D-, E-, or A-optimal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-11-17 Ian R. Manchester

Hyperparameter tuning is a challenging problem especially when the system itself involves uncertainty. Due to noisy function evaluations, optimization under uncertainty can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we present a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Akash Yadav , Ruda Zhang

We consider an on-line system identification setting, in which new data become available at given time steps. In order to meet real-time estimation requirements, we propose a tailored Bayesian system identification procedure, in which the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-01-19 Diego Romeres , Giulia Prando , Gianluigi Pillonetto , Alessandro Chiuso

Stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in modern, real-world applications. Yet, estimating the unknown parameters of stochastic, nonlinear dynamical models remains a challenging problem. The majority of existing methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-06 Anubhab Ghosh , Mohamed Abdalmoaty , Saikat Chatterjee , Håkan Hjalmarsson

Although projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) for parameterized nonlinear dynamical systems have demonstrated exciting results across a range of applications, their broad adoption has been limited by their intrusivity: implementing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-18 Zhe Bai , Liqian Peng

A Bayesian approach to the classification problem is proposed in which random partitions play a central role. It is argued that the partitioning approach has the capacity to take advantage of a variety of large-scale spatial structures, if…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Marc A. Coram

This paper investigates the state estimation problem for a class of complex networks, in which the dynamics of each node is subject to Gaussian noise, system uncertainties and nonlinearities. Based on a regularized least-squares approach,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-16 Peihu Duan , Qishao Wang , Zhisheng Duan , Guanrong Chen

The effectiveness of data-driven techniques heavily depends on the input signal used to generate the estimation data. However, a significant research gap exists in the field of input design for nonlinear dynamic system identification. In…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-05 Max Herkersdorf , Oliver Nelles