Related papers: Earthquake Counting Method for Spatially Localized…
We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations…
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…
The ranking problem of earthquake forecasts is considered. We formulate simple statistical requirements to forecasting quality measure R and analyze some R-ranking methods on this basis, in particular, the pari-mutuel gambling method by…
The time dependence of the parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) magnitude distribution is computed for foreshock sequences of earthquakes, correlated with the main shock, by using the geometric-growth model of earthquake focus, the…
Operational earthquake forecasting for risk management and communication during seismic sequences depends on our ability to select an optimal forecasting model. To do this, we need to compare the performance of competing models with each…
Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record…
The successful prediction of earthquakes is one of the holy grails in Earth Sciences. Traditional predictions use statistical information on recurrence intervals, but those predictions are not accurate enough. In a recent paper, a machine…
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…
The number of successes 'n' and the normalized measure of space-time alarm 'tau' are commonly used to characterize the strength of an earthquake prediction method and the significance of prediction results. To evaluate better the…
Motivated by the fact that empirical time series of earthquakes exhibit long-range correlations in space and time and the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of magnitudes, we propose a simple fault model that can account for these types of…
It is well accepted that, at the global scale, the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law describing the distribution of earthquake magnitude or seismic moment has to be modified at the tail to properly account for the most extreme events. It is…
We present a new method of data clustering applied to earthquake catalogs, with the goal of reconstructing the seismically active part of fault networks. We first use an original method to separate clustered events from uncorrelated…
By analyzing the seismicity in natural time and studying the evolution of the fluctuations of the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal for various scales of different length i (number of events), we can identify the approach of…
In the present paper we have conducted studies on seismological properties using worldwide data of deep earthquakes (depth larger than 70 km), considering events with magnitude $m \geq 4.5$. We have addressed the problem under the…
Due to the saturation of the body ($m_b$) and surface ($M_S$) earthquake magnitudes, the moment magnitude ($M_W$) is a more convenient parameter for representing earthquake energies. We use the HRVD data, including 18,569 earthquakes…
Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…
Aftershocks of aftershocks - and their aftershock cascades - substantially contribute to the increased seismicity rate and the associated elevated seismic hazard after the occurrence of a large earthquake. Current state-of-the-art…
We present a novel approach for resolving modes of rupture directivity in large populations of earthquakes. A seismic spectral decomposition technique is used to first produce relative measurements of radiated energy for earthquakes in a…
The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional error diagram (n,tau), where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is the normalized measure of space-time alarm. The most interesting…
It was conjectured for a long time that the tectonic plates are in a self-organized state of criticality and that the Gutenberg-Richter law is a manifestation of that. It was recently shown that for a system near criticality, the inequality…