Related papers: Earthquake Counting Method for Spatially Localized…
Seismic prediction remains challenging due to the highly nonlinear and chaotic dynamics of earthquake signals. While classical deep learning models such as LSTMs and CNNs capture local temporal features, and quantum models offer richer…
The number of earthquakes as a function of magnitude decays as a power law. This trend is usually justified using spring-block models, where slips with the appropriate global statistics have been numerically observed. However, prominent…
We have written a new equation to study the statistics of earthquake distributions. We call this equation "the generalized logistic equation". The Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude formula was derived from the solution of the…
We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time,…
Japan's GPS observed the fifteen-month megathrust earthquake genesis process of the 2011 Tohoku M9, suggesting the real-time predictability of such events.
The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…
The ETAS models are currently the most popular in the field of earthquake forecasting. The MCMC method is time-consuming and limited by parameter correlation while bringing parameter uncertainty. The INLA-based method "inlabru" solves these…
Early earthquake warning is a rapidly developing capability that has significant ramifications for many fields, including astronomical observatories. In this work, we describe the susceptibility of astronomical facilities to seismic events,…
The accurate and automated determination of earthquake locations is still a challenging endeavor. However, such information is critical for monitoring seismic activity and assessing potential hazards in real time. Recently, a convolutional…
For earthquake-resistant design, engineering seismologists employ time-history analysis for nonlinear simulations. The nonstationary stochastic method previously developed by Pousse et al. (2006) has been updated. This method has the…
This paper estimates local tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over…
Earthquakes cannot be predicted with precision, but algorithms exist for intermediate-term middle range prediction of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold, based on seismicity patterns. Few years ago, a first attempt was made in the…
We have explored the temporal variability of the seismicity at global scale over the last 124 years, as well as its potential drivers. To achieve this, we constructed and analyzed an averaged global seismicity curve for earthquakes of…
The paper describes a theoretical model of the generation of electromagnetic emissions detected prior to the earthquake, a scheme of the earthquake prediction methodology, the possible methods, which are capable of simultaneous…
Seismic risk estimates will be vastly improved with an increased understanding of historical (and pre-historical) seismic events. However the only existing data for these events is anecdotal and sparse. To address this we developed a…
As part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake forecasting, we use a simple model of seismicity based on interacting events which may trigger a cascade of earthquakes, known as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence…
The two-fractal overlap model of earthquake shows that the contact area distribution of two fractal surfaces follows power law decay in many cases and this agrees with the Guttenberg-Richter power law. Here, we attempt to predict the large…
We present results for long term and intermediate term prediction algorithms applied to a simple mechanical model of a fault. We use long term prediction methods based, for example, on the distribution of repeat times between large events…
A model for fault dynamics consisting of two rough and rigid brownian profiles that slide one over the other is introduced. An earthquake occurs when there is an intersection between the two profiles. The energy release is proportional to…
This paper presents a complete methodology for Bayesian inference on a semi-Markov process, from the elicitation of the prior distribution, to the computation of posterior summaries, including a guidance for its JAGS implementation. The…