Related papers: Forecasting ability of a multi-renewal seismicity …
After the earthquake occurred in Molise (Central Italy) on 31st October 2002 (Ml 5.4, 29 people dead), the local Servizio Regionale per la Protezione Civile to ensure a better analysis of local seismic data, through a convention with the…
We develop a stochastic modeling approach based on spatial point processes of log-Gaussian Cox type for a collection of around 5000 landslide events provoked by a precipitation trigger in Sicily, Italy. Through the embedding into a…
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…
This paper proposes a new estimation algorithm for the parameters of an HMM as to best account for the observed data. In this model, in addition to the observation sequence, we have \emph{partial} and \emph{noisy} access to the hidden state…
The proportional hazards (PH) model is arguably one of the most popular models used to analyze time to event data arising from clinical trials and longitudinal studies, among many others. In many such studies, the event time of interest is…
The optimal scaling problem for the time t(LxL) between two successive events in a seismogenic cell of size L is considered. The quantity t(LxL) is defined for a random cell of a grid covering a seismic region G. We solve that problem in…
Machine Learning (ML) inspired algorithms provide a flexible set of tools for analyzing and forecasting chaotic dynamical systems. We here analyze the performance of one algorithm for the prediction of extreme events in the two-dimensional…
The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…
Within the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework, the fragility model plays a pivotal role. Such a model represents the probability that the engineering demand parameter (EDP) exceeds a certain safety threshold given a…
The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is one of the most widely-used approaches to seismic forecasting. However most studies of ETAS use point estimates for the model parameters, which ignores the inherent uncertainty that…
Early identification of at-risk students is critical for effective intervention in online learning environments. This study extends temporal prediction analysis to Week 20 (50% of course duration), comparing Decision Tree and Long Short-…
Cross-sectional ranking models are often deployed as if point predictions were sufficient: the model outputs scores and the portfolio follows the induced ordering. Under non-stationarity, rankers can fail during regime shifts. In the AI…
In this work, we propose an event-triggered moving horizon estimation (ET-MHE) scheme for the remote state estimation of general nonlinear systems. In the presented method, whenever an event is triggered, a single measurement is transmitted…
In this paper we present a set of experiments carried out with BERT on a number of Italian sentences taken from poetry domain. The experiments are organized on the hypothesis of a very high level of difficulty in predictability at the three…
We develop a novel continuous-time asymptotic framework for inference on whether the predictive ability of a given forecast model remains stable over time. We formally define forecast instability from the economic forecaster's perspective…
Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior…
Different investment strategies are adopted in short-term and long-term depending on the time scales, even though time scales are adhoc in nature. Empirical mode decomposition based Hurst exponent analysis and variance technique have been…
Accurate prediction of tropical cyclones remains a major challenge for both numerical weather prediction and emerging artificial intelligence weather prediction systems. While recent global AI models have demonstrated strong skill in…
The problem of nowcasting extreme weather events can be addressed by applying either numerical methods for the solution of dynamic model equations or data-driven artificial intelligence algorithms. Within this latter framework, the present…
We propose two methods to calibrate the parameters of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model based on expectation maximization (EM) while accounting for temporal variation of catalog completeness. The first method allows for…