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Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are latent variable models which allow latent state persistence and can be viewed as a generalization of the popular hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this paper, we introduce a novel spectral algorithm to…
Estimation of extreme quantile regions, spaces in which future extreme events can occur with a given low probability, even beyond the range of the observed data, is an important task in the analysis of extremes. Existing methods to estimate…
Developing models and algorithms to predict nonstationary time series is a long standing statistical problem. It is crucial for many applications, in particular for fashion or retail industries, to make optimal inventory decisions and avoid…
Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful tool for Bayesian statistical inference due to its potential to rapidly explore high dimensional state space, avoiding the random walk behavior typical of many Markov Chain Monte Carlo samplers.…
This paper shows how data science can contribute to improving empirical research in economics by leveraging on large datasets and extracting information otherwise unsuitable for a traditional econometric approach. As a test-bed for our…
We investigate the dynamic behavior of spin reversal events in the dilute Ising model, focusing on the influence of static disorder introduced by pinned spins. Our Monte Carlo simulations reveal that in a homogeneous, defect-free system,…
We present an efficient exact algorithm for estimating state sequences from outputs (or observations) in imprecise hidden Markov models (iHMM), where both the uncertainty linking one state to the next, and that linking a state to its…
A deep learning model, named IITNet, is proposed to learn intra- and inter-epoch temporal contexts from raw single-channel EEG for automatic sleep scoring. To classify the sleep stage from half-minute EEG, called an epoch, sleep experts…
Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to…
Here we focus on a basic statistical measure of earthquake catalogs that has not been studied before, the asymmetry of interevent time series (e.g., reflecting the tendency to have more aftershocks than spontaneous earthquakes). We define…
We study tick-by-tick financial returns belonging to the FTSE MIB index of the Italian Stock Exchange (Borsa Italiana). We can confirm previously detected non-stationarities. However, scaling properties reported in the previous literature…
This paper presents a complete methodology for Bayesian inference on a semi-Markov process, from the elicitation of the prior distribution, to the computation of posterior summaries, including a guidance for its JAGS implementation. The…
In this work we consider active local learning: given a query point $x$, and active access to an unlabeled training set $S$, output the prediction $h(x)$ of a near-optimal $h \in H$ using significantly fewer labels than would be needed to…
One of the most important tasks of urban and hazard planning is to mitigate the damages and minimize the costs of the recovery process after catastrophic events. The rapidity and the efficiency of the recovery process are commonly referred…
The null hypothesis test (NHT) is widely used for validating scientific hypotheses but is actually highly criticized. Although Bayesian tests overcome several criticisms, some limits remain. We propose a Bayesian two-interval test (2IT) in…
We propose a network architecture capable of reliably estimating uncertainty of regression based predictions without sacrificing accuracy. The current state-of-the-art uncertainty algorithms either fall short of achieving prediction…
Weakly hard real-time systems can, to some degree, tolerate deadline misses, but their schedulability still needs to be analyzed to ensure their quality of service. Such analysis usually occurs at early design stages to provide…
Earthquake early warning systems are crucial for protecting areas that are subject to these natural disasters. An essential part of these systems is the detection procedure. Traditionally these systems work with seismograph data, but high…
The probability distribution (PD) of spin configurations in kinetic Ising models has been cast in the form of the canonical Boltzmann PD with a time-dependent effective Hamiltonian (EH). It has been argued that in systems with extensive…