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This paper investigates maximum likelihood estimation for direct system identification in networks of dynamical systems. We establish that the proposed approach is both consistent and efficient. In addition, it is more generally applicable…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-06 Anders Hansson , João Victor Galvão da Mata , Martin S. Andersen

We prove the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of a general conditionally heteroscedastic model with $\alpha$-stable innovations. Then, we relax the assumptions and only…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-01-01 Guillaume Lepage

We propose an algorithm to actively estimate the parameters of a linear dynamical system. Given complete control over the system's input, our algorithm adaptively chooses the inputs to accelerate estimation. We show a finite time bound…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-23 Andrew Wagenmaker , Kevin Jamieson

We consider the homogeneous stochastic differential equation with unknown parameter to be estimated. We prove that the standard maximum likelihood estimate is strongly consistent under very mild conditions. There are also established the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-07 Yuliya Mishura

We consider covariance parameter estimation for Gaussian processes with functional inputs. From an increasing-domain asymptotics perspective, we prove the asymptotic consistency and normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. We extend…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-16 Lucas Reding , Andrés F. López-Lopera , François Bachoc

We present new results for consistency of maximum likelihood estimators with a focus on multivariate mixed models. Our theory builds on the idea of using subsets of the full data to establish consistency of estimators based on the full…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-13 Karl Oskar Ekvall , Galin L. Jones

This article provides an introduction to the asymptotic analysis of covariance parameter estimation for Gaussian processes. Maximum likelihood estimation is considered. The aim of this introduction is to be accessible to a wide audience and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-16 François Bachoc

Maximum likelihood estimation has been extensively used in the joint analysis of repeated measurements and survival time. However, there is a lack of theoretical justification of the asymptotic properties for the maximum likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Donglin Zeng , Jianwen Cai

This paper introduces a novel direct approach to system identification of dynamic networks with missing data based on maximum likelihood estimation. Dynamic networks generally present a singular probability density function, which poses a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-31 João Victor Galvão da Mata , Anders Hansson , Martin S. Andersen

We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Davide Faranda , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Valerio Lucarini , Giorgio Turchetti , Sandro Vaienti

In recent years, the discovery of complex dynamic systems in various fields through data-driven methods has attracted widespread attention. This method has played the role of data and has become an advantageous tool for us to study complex…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-12-02 Min Dai , Ting Gao , Yubin Lu , Yayun Zheng , Jinqiao Duan

We consider maximum likelihood estimation with data from a bivariate Gaussian process with a separable exponential covariance model under fixed domain asymptotic. We first characterize the equivalence of Gaussian measures under this model.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-25 Daira Velandia , François Bachoc , Moreno Bevilacqua , Xavier Gendre , Jean-Michel Loubes

We consider a one dimensional ballistic random walk evolving in an i.i.d. parametric random environment. We provide a maximum likelihood estimation procedure of the environment parameters based on a single observation of the path till the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-02-13 Francis Comets , Mikael Falconnet , Oleg Loukianov , Dasha Loukianova , Catherine Matias

We study asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators of drift parameters for a jump-type Heston model based on continuous time observations, where the jump process can be any purely non-Gaussian L\'evy process of not necessarily…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-08 Matyas Barczy , Mohamed Ben Alaya , Ahmed Kebaier , Gyula Pap

We study the problem of parameter estimation using maximum likelihood for fast/slow systems of stochastic differential equations. Our aim is to shed light on the problem of model/data mismatch at small scales. We consider two classes of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-06-20 A. Papavasiliou , G. A. Pavliotis , A. M. Stuart

In this paper, we claim the availability of deterministic noises for stabilization of the origins of dynamical systems, provided that the noises have unbounded variations. To achieve the result, we first consider the system representations…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2022-09-20 Yuki Nishimura

Invertibility conditions for observation-driven time series models often fail to be guaranteed in empirical applications. As a result, the asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood and quasi-maximum likelihood estimators may be compromised.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-11 F Blasques , P Gorgi , S Koopman , O Wintenberger

In many real world chaotic systems, the interest is typically in determining when the system will behave in an extreme manner. Flooding and drought, extreme heatwaves, large earthquakes, and large drops in the stock market are examples of…

Applications · Statistics 2019-08-19 Michael LuValle

We propose novel parameter estimation algorithms for a class of dynamical systems with nonlinear parametrization. The class is initially restricted to smooth monotonic functions with respect to a linear functional of the parameters. We show…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ivan Tyukin , Danil Prokhorov , Cees van Leeuwen

Maximum likelihood estimation is effective for identifying dynamical systems, but applying it to large networks becomes computationally prohibitive. This paper introduces a maximum likelihood estimation method that enables identification of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-06 João Victor Galvão da Mata , Anders Hansson , Martin S. Andersen
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