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Climate models have become an important tool in the study of climate and climate change, and ensemble experiments consisting of multiple climate-model runs are used in studying and quantifying the uncertainty in climate-model output.…

Applications · Statistics 2011-04-15 Stephan R. Sain , Reinhard Furrer , Noel Cressie

The problem of detection and possible estimation of a signal generated by a dynamic system when a variable number of noisy measurements can be taken is here considered. Assuming a Markov evolution of the system (in particular, the pair…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-05-12 Emanuele Grossi , Marco Lops

Identifying the infection status of each individual during infectious diseases informs public health management. However, performing frequent individual-level tests may not be feasible. Instead, sparse and sometimes group-level tests are…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-06 Zahra Gholamalian , Zeinab Maleki , MasoudReza Hashemi , Pouria Ramazi

Permutation tests have been proposed by Albert et al. (2015) to detect dependence between point processes, modeling in particular spike trains, that is the time occurrences of action potentials emitted by neurons. Our present work focuses…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-04 Josué Tchouanti , Éva Löcherbach , Patricia Reynaud-Bouret , Etienne Tanré

We introduce a class of continuous-time bivariate phase-type distributions for modeling dependencies from common shocks. The construction uses continuous-time Markov processes that evolve identically until an internal common-shock event,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-01 Martin Bladt , Oscar Peralta , Jorge Yslas

Given the vastness of chemical space and the ongoing emergence of previously uncharacterized proteins, zero-shot compound-protein interaction (CPI) prediction better reflects the practical challenges and requirements of real-world drug…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Hongzhi Zhang , Zhonglie Liu , Kun Meng , Jiameng Chen , Jia Wu , Bo Du , Di Lin , Yan Che , Wenbin Hu

We consider a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) whose state space is partitioned into aggregates, and each aggregate is assigned a probability measure. A sufficient condition for defining a CTMC over the aggregates is presented as a…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2013-03-21 Arnab Ganguly , Tatjana Petrov , Heinz Koeppl

Copula mixed models for trivariate (or bivariate) meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies accounting (or not) for disease prevalence have been proposed in the biostatistics literature to synthesize information. However, many…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-12 Aristidis K. Nikoloulopoulos

In unsupervised classification, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are used to account for a neighborhood structure between observations. The emission distributions are often supposed to belong to some parametric family. In this paper, a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-06-25 Stevenn Volant , Caroline Bérard , Marie-Laure Martin-Magniette , Stéphane Robin

Developing satisfactory methodology for the analysis of Markov random field is a very challenging task. Indeed, due to the Markovian dependence structure, the normalizing constant of the fields cannot be computed using standard analytical…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-12 Julien Stoehr

We combined the genetic crossover, which is one of the operations of genetic algorithm, and replica-exchange method in parallel molecular dynamics simulations. The genetic crossover and replica-exchange method can search the global…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-25 Yoshitake Sakae , Tomoyuki Hiroyasu , Mitsunori Miki , Katsuya Ishii , Yuko Okamoto

In this study, we propose a hidden Markov mixture model for the analysis of gene expression measurements mapped to chromosome locations. These expression values represent preprocessed light intensities observed in each probe of Affymetrix…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-27 Vinícius Diniz Mayrink , Flávio Bambirra Gonçalves

Split conformal prediction is a computationally efficient method for performing distribution-free predictive inference in regression. It involves, however, a one-time random split of the data, and the result depends on the particular split.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-22 Aldo Solari , Vera Djordjilović

Common deep learning approaches for antibody engineering focus on modeling the marginal distribution of sequences. By treating sequences as independent samples, however, these methods overlook affinity maturation as a rich and largely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Stephen Zhewen Lu , Aakarsh Vermani , Kohei Sanno , Jiarui Lu , Frederick A Matsen , Milind Jagota , Yun S. Song

Computing the probability of evidence even with known error bounds is NP-hard. In this paper we address this hard problem by settling on an easier problem. We propose an approximation which provides high confidence lower bounds on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-26 Vibhav Gogate , Bozhena Bidyuk , Rina Dechter

In this work we develop a stochastic model of acute HIV infection, based on the well-known standard model, that allows us to simulate the complex mutation pathways of HIV escape from multiple CTL responses. Under this model, we describe two…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-08-16 Sivan Leviyang

Dropout represents a typical issue to be addressed when dealing with longitudinal studies. If the mechanism leading to missing information is non-ignorable, inference based on the observed data only may be severely biased. A frequent…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-23 Maria Francesca Marino , Marco Alfo'

We derive tests of stationarity for univariate time series by combining change-point tests sensitive to changes in the contemporary distribution with tests sensitive to changes in the serial dependence. The proposed approach relies on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-21 Axel Bücher , Jean-David Fermanian , Ivan Kojadinovic

Collecting multiple longitudinal measurements and time-to-event outcomes is a common practice in clinical and epidemiological studies, often focusing on exploring associations between them. Joint modeling is the standard analytical tool for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-10 Taban Baghfalaki , Reza Hashemi , Catherine Helmer , Helene Jacqmin-Gadda

Analyses of serially-sampled data often begin with the assumption that the observations represent discrete samples from a latent continuous-time stochastic process. The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is one such generative model whose…

Applications · Statistics 2009-10-12 Asger Hobolth , Eric A. Stone