Related papers: What's in YOUR wallet?
This paper presents a numerical model to solve the problem of cash accumulation strategies for products with an unknown future price, like assets. Stock prices are modeled by a discretized Wiener Process, and by the means of ordinary…
We apply in this article (non rigorous) statistical mechanics methods to the problem of counting long circuits in graphs. The outcomes of this approach have two complementary flavours. On the algorithmic side, we propose an approximate…
It is well known that options can make planning more efficient, among their many benefits. Thus far, algorithms for autonomously discovering a set of useful options were heuristic. Naturally, a principled way of finding a set of useful…
Consider a system of \(n\) players in which each initially starts on a different team. At each time step, we select an individual winner and an individual loser randomly and the loser joins the winner's team. The resulting Markov chain and…
This paper considers the queueing performance of a system that transmits coded data over a time-varying erasure channel. In our model, the queue length and channel state together form a Markov chain that depends on the system parameters.…
The often debated issue of `ratios of small numbers of events' is approached from a probabilistic perspective, making a clear distinction between the predictive problem (forecasting numbers of events we might count under well stated…
Gold and bitcoin are not new to us, but with limited cash and time, given only the past stream of the daily price of gold and bitcoin, it is a kind of new problem for us to develop a certain model and determine the best strategy to get the…
We envision a machine capable of solving mathematical problems. Dividing the quantitative reasoning system into two parts: thought processes and cognitive processes, we provide probabilistic descriptions of the architecture.
Macroeconomic indexes are of high importance for banks: many risk-control decisions utilize these indexes. A typical workflow of these indexes evaluation is costly and protracted, with a lag between the actual date and available index being…
This paper presents a simple algorithm to check whether reachability probabilities in parametric Markov chains are monotonic in (some of) the parameters. The idea is to construct - only using the graph structure of the Markov chain and…
We describe how one may go about performing quantum computation with arbitrary "quantum stuff", as long as it has some basic physical properties. Imagine a long strip of stuff, equipped with regularly spaced wires to provide input settings…
The MultiQueue is a relaxed concurrent priority queue consisting of $n$ internal priority queues, where an insertion uses a random queue and a deletion considers two random queues and deletes the minimum from the one with the smaller…
In the Markov decision process model, policies are usually evaluated by expected cumulative rewards. As this decision criterion is not always suitable, we propose in this paper an algorithm for computing a policy optimal for the quantile…
In this paper, we provide a methodology for computing the probability distribution of sojourn times for a wide class of Markov chains. Our methodology consists in writing out linear systems and matrix equations for generating functions…
In this paper we apply neural networks and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to historical records of high-risk cryptocurrency coins to train a prediction model that guesses their price. This paper's code contains Jupyter notebooks, one of which…
Mechanisms for the automation of uncertainty are required for expert systems. Sometimes these mechanisms need to obey the properties of probabilistic reasoning. A purely numeric mechanism, like those proposed so far, cannot provide a…
The Importance Markov chain is a novel algorithm bridging the gap between rejection sampling and importance sampling, moving from one to the other through a tuning parameter. Based on a modified sample of an instrumental Markov chain…
A quantum money scheme enables a trusted bank to provide untrusted users with verifiable quantum banknotes that cannot be forged. In this work, we report an experimental demonstration of the preparation and verification of unforgeable…
There are two possible ways of interpreting the seemingly stochastic nature of financial markets: the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and a set of stylized facts that drive the behavior of the markets. We show evidence for some of the…
We investigate the equilibrium behavior for the decentralized quadratic cheap talk problem in which an encoder and a decoder, viewed as two decision makers, have misaligned objective functions. In prior work, we have shown that the number…