Related papers: On the Predictability of Future Impact in Science
Setbacks are an integral part of a scientific career, yet little is known about whether an early-career setback may augment or hamper an individual's future career impact. Here we examine junior scientists applying for U.S. National…
Estimating the expected impact of an article is valuable for various applications (e.g., article/cooperator recommendation). Most existing approaches attempt to predict the exact number of citations each article will receive in the near…
Analyzing a large data set of publications drawn from the most competitive journals in the natural and social sciences we show that research careers exhibit the broad distributions of individual achievement characteristic of systems in…
Scholarly article impact reflects the significance of academic output recognised by academic peers, and it often plays a crucial role in assessing the scientific achievements of researchers, teams, institutions and countries. It is also…
Test data measured by medical instruments often carry imprecise ranges that include the true values. The latter are not obtainable in virtually all cases. Most learning algorithms, however, carry out arithmetical calculations that are…
Science is a fundamental human activity and we trust its results because it has several error-correcting mechanisms. Its is subject to experimental tests that are replicated by independent parts. Given the huge amount of information…
The rapid evolution of scientific research has been creating a huge volume of publications every year. Among the many quantification measures of scientific impact, citation count stands out for its frequent use in the research community.…
Advances in deep learning systems have allowed large models to match or surpass human accuracy on a number of skills such as image classification, basic programming, and standardized test taking. As the performance of the most capable…
In this paper, we propose a measure to assess scientific impact that discounts self-citations and does not require any prior knowledge on the their distribution among publications. This index can be applied to both researchers and journals.…
The h-index has been shown to have predictive power. Here I report results of an empirical study showing that the increase of the h-index with time often depends for a long time on citations to rather old publications. This inert behavior…
After completing their undergraduate studies, many computer science (CS) students apply for competitive graduate programs in North America. Their long-term goal is often to be hired by one of the big five tech companies or to become a…
Complex statistical models such as scalar-on-image regression often require strong assumptions to overcome the issue of non-identifiability. While in theory it is well understood that model assumptions can strongly influence the results,…
This paper calibrates how metrics derivable from the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System can be used to estimate the future impact of astronomy research careers and thereby to inform decisions on resource allocation such as job hires and…
Predicting future events is an important activity with applications across multiple fields and domains. For example, the capacity to foresee stock market trends, natural disasters, business developments, or political events can facilitate…
Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…
The impact of individual scientists is commonly quantified using citation-based measures. The most common such measure is the h-index. A scientist's h-index affects hiring, promotion, and funding decisions, and thus shapes the progress of…
The application of machine learning to physics problems is widely found in the scientific literature. Both regression and classification problems are addressed by a large array of techniques that involve learning algorithms. Unfortunately,…
Predicting the impact of research institutions is an important tool for decision makers, such as resource allocation for funding bodies. Despite significant effort of adopting quantitative indicators to measure the impact of research…
The h-index is a popular bibliometric indicator for assessing individual scientists. We criticize the h-index from a theoretical point of view. We argue that for the purpose of measuring the overall scientific impact of a scientist (or some…
Predicting the social and behavioral impact of future technologies, before they are achieved, would allow us to guide their development and regulation before these impacts get entrenched. Traditionally, this prediction has relied on…