Related papers: Light tails: Gibbs conditional principle under ext…
Asymptotics deviation probabilities of the sum S n = X 1 + $\times$ $\times$ $\times$ + X n of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables have been extensively investigated , in particular when X 1 is not…
Assume that claims in a portfolio of insurance contracts are described by independent and identically distributed random variables with regularly varying tails and occur according to a near mixed Poisson process. We provide a collection of…
We establish the one-to one bilateral interrelations between an asymptotic behavior for the tail of distributions for random variables and its great moments evaluation. Our results generalize the famous Richter's ones.
The asymptotic tail behaviour of sums of independent subexponential random variables is well understood, one of the main characteristics being the principle of the single big jump. We study the case of dependent subexponential random…
Let $\mathbf{X}(n) \in \mathbb{R}^d$ be a sequence of random vectors, where $n\in\mathbb{N}$ and $d = d(n)$. Under certain weakly dependence conditions, we prove that the distribution of the maximal component of $\mathbf{X}$ and the…
The Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method is the most popular statistical method for the analysis of univariate extremes. Even though there is a rich applied literature on Bayesian inference for the POT, the asymptotic theory for such proposals…
We introduce a simple generalization of rational bubble models which removes the fundamental problem discovered by [Lux and Sornette, 1999] that the distribution of returns is a power law with exponent less than 1, in contradiction with…
Consider $n$ i.i.d. random elements on $C[0,1]$. We show that, under an appropriate strengthening of the domain of attraction condition, natural estimators of the extreme-value index, which is now a continuous function, and the normalizing…
In this note we prove bounds on the upper and lower probability tails of sums of independent geometric or exponentially distributed random variables. We also prove negative results showing that our established tail bounds are asymptotically…
Let $\{X_n,n\ge1\}$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, taking non-negative integer values, and call $X_n$ a $\delta$-record if $X_n>\max\{X_1,...,X_{n-1}\}+\delta$, where $\delta$ is an integer…
We consider certain Fibonacci-like sequences $(X_n)_{n\geq 0}$ perturbed with a random noise. Our main result is that $\frac{1}{X_n}\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}X_k$ converges in distribution, as $n$ goes to infinity, to a random variable $W$ with…
In this paper we prove the tail variational principle for actions of countable amenable groups. This allows us to extend some characterizations of asymptotic $h$-expansiveness from $\mathbb{Z}$-actions to actions of countable amenable…
A continuous approximation for the results of [1] is obtained. In this approximation the energy distribution is represented in the form of the product of the Gibbs factor and superstatistics factor. The mutual weights of the factors are…
The tail process $\boldsymbol{Y}=(Y_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ of a stationary regularly varying random field $\boldsymbol{X}=(X_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ represents the asymptotic local…
Recently some papers, such as Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006), Nuyts (2010) and Clark (2013), have drawn attention to possible truncation in Pareto tail modelling. Sometimes natural upper bounds exist that truncate the probability…
The non-asymptotic tail bounds of random variables play crucial roles in probability, statistics, and machine learning. Despite much success in developing upper bounds on tail probability in literature, the lower bounds on tail…
Let $\{Z(\tau,s), (\tau,s)\in [a,b]\times[0,T]\}$ with some positive constants $a,b,T$ be a centered Gaussian random field with variance function $\sigma^{2}(\tau,s)$ satisfying $\sigma^{2}(\tau,s)=\sigma^{2}(\tau)$. We firstly derive the…
We consider moderately trimmed sums of non-negative i.i.d. random variables. We show that for every distribution function there exists a proper moderate trimming such that for the trimmed sum a non-trivial strong law of large numbers holds.…
We establish some asymptotic expansions for infinite weighted convolutions of distributions having light subexponential tails. Examples are presented, some showing that in order to obtain an expansion with two significant terms, one needs…
If the Euclidean norm is strongly concentrated with respect to a measure, the average distribution of an average marginal of this measure has Gaussian asymptotics that captures tail behaviour. If the marginals of the measure have…