Related papers: Light tails: Gibbs conditional principle under ext…
We extend the spectral method for proving limit theorems to random non-uniformly expanding dynamical systems. This yields the CLT and moderate deviations principles (MDP). We show that as the amount of non-uniformity decreases the CLT rates…
The probability that the sum of independent, centered, identically distributed, heavy-tailed random variables achieves a very large value is asymptotically equal to the probability that there exists a single summand equalling that value. We…
Consider the product $G_{n}=g_{n} ... g_{1}$ of the random matrices $g_{1},...,g_{n}$ in $GL(d,\mathbb{R}) $ and the random process $ G_{n}v=g_{n}... g_{1}v$ in $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ starting at point $v\in \mathbb{R}^{d}\smallsetminus \{0\} .$…
We develop a framework for the operationalization of models and parameters by combining de Finetti's representation theorem with a conditional form of Sanov's theorem. This synthesis, the tilted de Finetti theorem, shows that conditioning…
Over the last few decades power law distributions have been suggested as forming generative mechanisms in a variety of disparate fields, such as, astrophysics, criminology and database curation. However, fitting these heavy tailed…
Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…
In [1] a detailed analysis was given of the large-time asymptotics of the total mass of the solution to the parabolic Anderson model on a supercritical Galton-Watson random tree with an i.i.d. random potential whose marginal distribution is…
We suggest approximating the distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables with a Pareto-like tail by combining extreme value approximations for the largest summands with a normal approximation for the…
For $(X_t)$ a two-sided $\alpha$-stable moving average, this paper studies the conditional distribution of future paths given a piece of observed trajectory when the process is far from its central values. Under this framework, vectors of…
The asymptotic results that underlie applications of extreme random fields often assume that the variables are located on a regular discrete grid, identified with $\mathbb{Z}^2$, and that they satisfy stationarity and isotropy conditions.…
Motivated by seminal paper of Kozlov et al.(1975) we consider in this paper a branching process with a geometric offspring distribution parametrized by random success probability $A$ and immigration equals $1$ in each generation. In…
Let $X$ be a L\'evy process with absolutely continuous L\'evy measure $\nu$. Small time polynomial expansions of order $n$ in $t$ are obtained for the tails $P(X_{t}\geq{}y)$ of the process, assuming smoothness conditions on the L\'evy…
We consider a Generalised Jackson Network with finitely many servers, a renewal input and $i.i.d.$ service times at each queue. We assume the network to be stable and, in addition, the distribution of the inter-arrival times to have…
The class of dispersion models introduced by J{\o}rgensen (1997b) covers many known distributions such as the normal, Student t, gamma, inverse Gaussian, hyperbola, von-Mises, among others. We study the small dispersion asymptotic…
There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…
Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) constructs approximate posteriors of the form $q(\theta) = \int k(\theta | z) r(dz)$, where the conditional kernel is parameterized and the mixing base is fixed and tractable. This paper develops a…
The probability distribution of a function of a subsystem conditioned on the value of the function of the whole, in the limit when the ratio of their values goes to zero, has a limit law: It equals the unconditioned marginal probability…
In a general class of one dimensional random differential equation the convergence of the distribution function of the solution to stationary state distribution is studied. In particular it is proved the boundedness respectively the…
We consider the following recurrence relation with random i.i.d. coefficients $(a_n,b_n)$: $$ x_{n+1}=a_{n+1} x_n+b_{n+1} $$ where $a_n\in GL(d,\mathbb{R}),b_n\in \mathbb{R}^d$. Under natural conditions on $(a_n,b_n)$ this equation has a…
Power-law probability distributions are widely used to model extreme statistical events in complex systems, with applications to a vast array of natural phenomena ranging from earthquakes to stock market crashes to pandemics. We show that…