Related papers: Light tails: Gibbs conditional principle under ext…

We consider Stochastic Volatility processes with heavy tails and possible long memory in volatility. We study the limiting conditional distribution of future events given that some present or past event was extreme (i.e. above a level which…

This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of higher-order conditional tail moments, which quantify the contribution of individual losses in the event of systemic collapse. The study is conducted within a framework comprising two…

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

Let $\{X_t, t \geq 1\}$ be a sequence of identically distributed and pairwise asymptotically independent random variables with regularly varying tails and $\{ \Theta_t, t\geq1 \}$ be a sequence of positive random variables independent of…

Let $S_n$ be the sum of independent random variables with distribution $F$. Under the assumption that $-\log(1-F(x))$ is slowly varying, conditions for $$ \lim_{n\to\infty}\sup_{s\ge t_n}\left|{P[S_n>s]\over n(1-F(s))}-1\right| =0 $$ are…

Let $(\mathbb X, T)$ be a subshift of finite type equipped with the Gibbs measure $\nu$ and let $f$ be a real-valued H\"older continuous function on $\mathbb X$ such that $\nu(f) = 0$. Consider the Birkhoff sums $S_n f = \sum_{k=0}^{n-1} f…

Multivariate rapid variation describes decay rates of joint light tails of a multivariate distribution. We impose a local uniformity condition to control decay variation of distribution tails along different directions, and using…

We consider solutions to the maximum recursion on weighted branching trees given by$$X\,{\buildrel d\over=}\,\bigvee_{i=1}^{N}{A_iX_i}\vee B,$$where $N$ is a random natural number, $B$ and $\{A_i\}_{i\in\mathbb{N}}$ are random positive…

The paper focuses on a class of light-tailed multivariate probability distributions. These are obtained via a transformation of the margins from a heavy-tailed original distribution. This class was introduced in Balkema et al. (J.…

We consider the parabolic Anderson problem $\partial_t u=\kappa\Delta u+\xi u$ on $(0,\infty)\times \Z^d$ with random i.i.d. potential $\xi=(\xi(z))_{z\in\Z^d}$ and the initial condition $u(0,\cdot)\equiv1$. Our main assumption is that…

Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…

This note studies the asymptotic properties of the variable $$Z_d:=\frac{X_1}{d}|\{X_1+X_2=d\},$$ as $d\to \infty$. Here $X_1$ and $X_2$ are non-negative i.i.d. variables with a common twice differentiable density function $f$. General…

We construct an example of a continuous centered random process with light tails of finite-dimensional distribution but with heavy tail of maximum distribution.

We study the free analogue of the classical affine fixed-point (or perpetuity) equation \[ \mathbb{X} \stackrel{d}{=} \mathbb{A}^{1/2}\mathbb{X}\,\mathbb{A}^{1/2} + \mathbb{B}, \] where $\mathbb{X}$ is assumed to be $*$-free from the pair…

We study the distribution of the occurrence of rare patterns in sufficiently mixing Gibbs random fields on the lattice $\mathbb{Z}^d$, $d\geq 2$. A typical example is the high temperature Ising model. This distribution is shown to converge…

This paper develops a theory of distribution- and time-uniform asymptotics, culminating in the first large-sample anytime-valid inference procedures that are shown to be uniformly valid in a rich class of distributions. Historically,…

We develop a new extreme value theory for repeated cross-sectional and panel data to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals (CIs) for conditional extremal quantiles from a fixed number $k$ of nearest-neighbor tail observations.…

Let (S_1,S_2)=(R \cos(\Theta), R \sin (\Theta)) be a bivariate random vector with associated random radius R which has distribution function $F$ being further independent of the random angle \Theta. In this paper we investigate the…

Let $X_1,...,X_n$ be iid random vectors and $f\ge 0$ be a non-negative function. Let also $k(n) = {\rm Argmax}_{i=1,...,n} f(X_i)$. We are interested in the distribution of $X_{k(n)}$ and their limit theorems. In other words, what is the…

Consider a heavy-tailed branching process (denoted by $Z_{n}$) in random environments, under the condition which infers that $\mathbb{E}\log m(\xi_{0})=\infty$. We show that (1) there exists no proper $c_{n}$ such that $\{Z_{n}/c_{n}\}$ has…