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We introduce a framework for uncertainty estimation that both describes and extends many existing methods. We consider typical hyperparameters involved in classical training as random variables and marginalise them out to capture various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-07 Francesco Farina , Lawrence Phillips , Nicola J Richmond

The calculation of the insurance liabilities of a cohort of dependent individuals in general requires the solution of a high-dimensional system of coupled linear forward integro-differential equations, which is infeasible for a larger…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-14 Philipp C. Hornung

Kernel estimation techniques, such as mean shift, suffer from one major drawback: the kernel bandwidth selection. The bandwidth can be fixed for all the data set or can vary at each points. Automatic bandwidth selection becomes a real…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2011-11-10 Aurelie Bugeau , Patrick Pérez

A non trivial problem that arises in several applications is the estimation of the mean of a truncated normal distribution. In this paper, an iterative deterministic scheme for approximating this mean is proposed. It has been inspired from…

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the…

In the literature, existence of mean-field equilibria has been established for discrete-time mean field games under both the discounted cost and the average cost optimality criteria. In this paper, we provide a value iteration algorithm to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-04-02 Berkay Anahtarci , Can Deha Kariksiz , Naci Saldi

We propose a computational framework to quantify (measure) and to optimize the reliability of complex systems. The approach uses a graph representation of the system that is subject to random failures of its components (nodes and edges).…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-25 Joshua L. Pulsipher , Victor M. Zavala

Variational inference has become an increasingly attractive fast alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, a major obstacle to the widespread use of variational methods is the lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Trevor Campbell , Tamara Broderick

This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-15 Jarrad Courts , Johannes Hendriks , Adrian Wills , Thomas Schön , Brett Ninness

Machine learning methods for computational imaging require uncertainty estimation to be reliable in real settings. While Bayesian models offer a computationally tractable way of recovering uncertainty, they need large data volumes to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-24 Francesco Tonolini , Jack Radford , Alex Turpin , Daniele Faccio , Roderick Murray-Smith

This paper develops a computational framework for optimizing the parameters of data assimilation systems in order to improve their performance. The approach formulates a continuous meta-optimization problem for parameters; the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2015-06-16 Alexandru Cioaca , Adrian Sandu

Variational approximation methods have proven to be useful for scaling Bayesian computations to large data sets and highly parametrized models. Applying variational methods involves solving an optimization problem, and recent research in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-13 Victor M. -H. Ong , David J. Nott , Michael S. Smith

Inference is the task of drawing conclusions about unobserved variables given observations of related variables. Applications range from identifying diseases from symptoms to classifying economic regimes from price movements. Unfortunately,…

We propose a policy iteration method to solve an inverse problem for a mean-field game (MFG) model, specifically to reconstruct the obstacle function in the game from the partial observation data of value functions, which represent the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Kui Ren , Nathan Soedjak , Shanyin Tong

Variance reduction is a family of powerful mechanisms for stochastic optimization that appears to be helpful in many machine learning tasks. It is based on estimating the exact gradient with some recursive sequences. Previously, many papers…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-07 Aleksandr Shestakov , Valery Parfenov , Aleksandr Beznosikov

Variable aggregation has been largely studied as an important pre-solve algorithm for optimization of linear and mixed-integer programs. Although some nonlinear solvers and algebraic modeling languages implement variable aggregation as a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-17 Sakshi Naik , Lorenz Biegler , Russell Bent , Robert Parker

The processes of interplant competition within a field are still poorly understood. However, they explain a large part of the heterogeneity in a field and may have longer-term consequences, especially in mixed stands. Modeling can help to…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Antonin Della Noce , Amélie Mathieu , Paul-Henry Cournède

The marginal maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation problem, which calculates the mode of the marginal posterior distribution of a subset of variables with the remaining variables marginalized, is an important inference problem…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-07-19 Qiang Liu , Alexander Ihler

We show that the algorithm to extract diverse M -solutions from a Conditional Random Field (called divMbest [1]) takes exactly the form of a Herding procedure [2], i.e. a deterministic dynamical system that produces a sequence of hypotheses…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-01-31 Ece Ozkan , Gemma Roig , Orcun Goksel , Xavier Boix

Mean field approximation is a powerful technique which has been used in many settings to study large-scale stochastic systems. In the case of two-timescale systems, the approximation is obtained by a combination of scaling arguments and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-24 Sebastian Allmeier , Nicolas Gast