Related papers: Improved El Ni\~no-Forecasting by Cooperativity De…
Extreme rainfall in the Indian summer monsoon can be destructive and deadly. Although El Ni\~no/ events in the equatorial Pacific make dry days and whole summers more likely throughout India, their influence on daily extremes is not well…
An experimental Environmental Watch System, the so-called Observatorio Andino-OA (Observatorio Andino), has been implemented in Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile over the past two years. The OA is a collaborative and…
The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: it's impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales…
Predicting sea surface temperature (SST) within the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region has been extensively studied due to its significant influence on global temperature and precipitation patterns. Statistical models such as…
Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation global (ENSO) imprint on sea surface temperature comes in many guises. To identify its tropical fingerprints and impacts on the rest of the climate system, we propose a global approach based on archetypal…
Forecasting Heavy Precipitation Events (HPE) in the Mediterranean is crucial but challenging due to the complexity of the processes involved. In this context, Artificial Intelligence methods have recently proven to be competitive with…
Different to classical theories which emphasize east--west feedback along the equator, data analyses via the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method support a new viewpoint that the El Ni\~{n}o--Southern Oscillation (ENSO)…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most predominant interannual variability in the tropics, significantly impacting global weather and climate. In this paper, a framework of low-order conceptual models for the ENSO is…
An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictability of ENSO complexity, which is a central problem in contemporary meteorology with large societal impacts. The information theory advances a unique way to quantify…
Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures…
Teleconnections between the tropical and the extratropical climates are often considered as a potential source of long-term predictability at seasonal to decadal time scales in the extratropics. This claim is taken up in the present work by…
We study the relationship between the El Ni\~no--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon in ensemble simulations from state-of-the-art climate models, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community…
A non-autonomous stochastic dynamical model approach is developed to describe the seasonal to interannual variability of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We determine the model coefficients by systematic statistical estimations…
The spatial coherence of a measured variable (e.g. temperature or pressure) is often studied to determine the regions where this variable varies the most or to find teleconnections, i.e. correlations between specific regions. While usual…
Reliable long-lead forecasting of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains a long-standing challenge in climate science. The previously developed Multimodal ENSO Forecast (MEF) model uses 80 ensemble predictions by two independent…
Global warming leads to the increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes that cause tremendous loss of lives and property. Accurate long-range climate prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster risk management for…
Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…