Related papers: Improved El Ni\~no-Forecasting by Cooperativity De…

We construct and analyze a climate network which represents the interdependent structure of the climate in different geographical zones and find that the network responds in a unique way to El-Ni\~{n}o events. Analyzing the dynamics of the…

We propose a scenario that explains many of the Pacific Ocean climate phenomena that are called El Nino/ La Nina. This scenario requires an event, which we call a Super-Nino Event. It dominates other phenomena when it occurs. A template of…

In recent years, the application of machine learning approaches to time-series forecasting of climate dynamical phenomena has become increasingly active. It is known that applying a band-pass filter to a time-series data is a key to…

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent interannual climate variability in the tropics and exhibits diverse features in spatiotemporal patterns. In this paper, a simple multiscale intermediate coupled stochastic model is…

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent interannual climate phenomena. An early and reliable ENSO forecasting remains a crucial goal, due to its serious implications for economy, society, and ecosystem. Despite…

The predictability of climate anomalies in the regions of Northern Eurasia in connection with El Nino phenomena is analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the most likely transition in 2024 from an El Nino phase at the beginning of the…

In a statistical analysis of more than a century of data we find a strong connection between strong warm El Nino winter events and high spring precipitation in a band from Southern England eastwards into Asia. This relationship is an…

Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining…

Anomalies during an El Nino are dominated by a single, irregularly oscillating, mode. Equatorial dynamics has been linked to delayed-oscillator models of this mode. Usually, the El Nino mode is regarded as an unstable mode of the coupled…

Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits depends heavily on improving general circulation model based dynamical forecasting systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecast, it is crucial…

While most spatial data can be modeled with the assumption that distant points are uncorrelated, some problems require dependence at both far and short distances. We introduce a model to directly incorporate dependence in phenomena that…

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscale stochastic model to show that the observed ENSO complexity can be…

This study introduces the second version of the Integrated Climate Model (ICM). ICM is developed by the Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics to improve the short-term climate prediction of the East…

The El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, yet the mechanisms limiting its long-lead predictability remain unclear. Here we develop a physics-guided Deep Echo State Network (DESN) that…

Extreme El Ni\~no events, such as occurred in 1997--1998, can induce severe weather on a global scale, with significant socioeconomic impacts that motivate efforts to understand them better. However, extreme El Ni\~no events are rare, and…

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability plays a key role in the global weather and climate system, with phenomena such as El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation regarded as a major source of interannual climate variability at the global scale.…

Considering the interdependencies between water and electricity use is critical for ensuring conservation measures are successful in lowering the net water and electricity use in a city. This water-electricity demand nexus will become even…

We evaluate the performance of two 44 year ensemble seasonal hindcast time series for the Nino3 index produced as part of the DEMETER project. We show that the ensemble mean carries useful information out to six months. The ensemble spread,…

Very strong El Ni\~no events occur sporadically every 10-20 years. The origin of this bursting behavior still remains elusive. Using a simplified 3-dimensional dynamical model of the tropical Pacific climate system, which captures the El…