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A maximum likelihood methodology for the parameters of models with an intractable likelihood is introduced. We produce a likelihood-free version of the stochastic approximation expectation-maximization (SAEM) algorithm to maximize the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-17 Umberto Picchini

When classical particle filtering algorithms are used for maximum likelihood parameter estimation in nonlinear state-space models, a key challenge is that estimates of the likelihood function and its derivatives are inherently noisy. The…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-30 Andreas Svensson , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-01 Michael U. Gutmann , Jukka Corander

Complex scientific models where the likelihood cannot be evaluated present a challenge for statistical inference. Over the past two decades, a wide range of algorithms have been proposed for learning parameters in computationally feasible…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-16 Aden Forrow , Ruth E. Baker

Our predictions for particle physics processes are realized in a chain of complex simulators. They allow us to generate high-fidelity simulated data, but they are not well-suited for inference on the theory parameters with observed data. We…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2020-11-03 Johann Brehmer , Kyle Cranmer

Likelihood-free methods are useful for parameter estimation of complex models with intractable likelihood functions for which it is easy to simulate data. Such models are prevalent in many disciplines including genetics, biology, ecology…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Christopher Drovandi , David T Frazier

Many quantum algorithms contain an important subroutine, the quantum amplitude estimation. As the name implies, this is essentially the parameter estimation problem and thus can be handled via the established statistical estimation theory.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-01-10 Tomoki Tanaka , Shumpei Uno , Tamiya Onodera , Naoki Yamamoto , Yohichi Suzuki

Estimations of physical parameters using data usually involve non-uniform experimental efficiencies. In this article, a method of maximum likelihood fit is introduced using the efficiency as a weight, while the probability distribution…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-08-31 Chenxu Yu , Yanxi Zhang

The ability to calculate precise likelihood ratios is fundamental to many STEM areas, such as decision-making theory, biomedical science, and engineering. However, there is no assumption-free statistical methodology to achieve this. For…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-19 Rachael L. Bond , Yang-Hui He , Thomas C. Ormerod

Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-23 Ke Li , Jitendra Malik

We consider the problem of parametric statistical inference when likelihood computations are prohibitively expensive but sampling from the model is possible. Several so-called likelihood-free methods have been developed to perform inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-14 Owen Thomas , Ritabrata Dutta , Jukka Corander , Samuel Kaski , Michael U. Gutmann

(Neal and Hinton, 1998) recast maximum likelihood estimation of any given latent variable model as the minimization of a free energy functional $F$, and the EM algorithm as coordinate descent applied to $F$. Here, we explore alternative…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-21 Juan Kuntz , Jen Ning Lim , Adam M. Johansen

For a single equation in a system of linear equations, estimation by instrumental variables is the standard approach. In practice, however, it is often difficult to find valid instruments. This paper proposes a maximum likelihood method…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-28 Eric Blankmeyer

Phase estimation is a quantum algorithm for measuring the eigenvalues of a Hamiltonian. We propose and rigorously analyse a randomized phase estimation algorithm with two distinctive features. First, our algorithm has complexity independent…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-08-09 Kianna Wan , Mario Berta , Earl T. Campbell

Quantum algorithms are able to solve particular problems exponentially faster than conventional algorithms, when implemented on a quantum computer. However, all demonstrations to date have required already knowing the answer to construct…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2013-03-22 Xiao-Qi Zhou , Pruet Kalasuwan , Timothy C. Ralph , Jeremy L. O'Brien

Likelihood-free Bayesian inference algorithms are popular methods for calibrating the parameters of complex, stochastic models, required when the likelihood of the observed data is intractable. These algorithms characteristically rely…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Thomas P Prescott , David J Warne , Ruth E Baker

The ability to efficiently infer system parameters is essential in any signal-processing task that requires fast operation. Dealing with quantum systems, a serious challenge arises due to substantial growth of the underlying Hilbert space…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-23 Lewis A. Clark , Jan Kolodynski

Systems biology seeks to create math models of biological systems to reduce inherent biological complexity and provide predictions for applications such as therapeutic development. However, it remains a challenge to determine which math…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-05 Vincent D. Zaballa , Elliot E. Hui

Deep learning algorithms have recently shown to be a successful tool in estimating parameters of statistical models for which simulation is easy, but likelihood computation is challenging. But the success of these approaches depends on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-20 Amanda Lenzi , Haavard Rue

Accurate simulation of complex physical systems enables the development, testing, and certification of control strategies before they are deployed into the real systems. As simulators become more advanced, the analytical tractability of the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-05-27 Lucas Barcelos , Rafael Oliveira , Rafael Possas , Lionel Ott , Fabio Ramos
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