Related papers: Wave Extremes in the North East Atlantic from Ense…
We study the response of the Lagrangian sea ice model neXtSIM to the uncertainty in the sea surface wind and sea ice cohesion. The ice mechanics in neXtSIM is based on a brittle-like rheological framework. The study considers short-term…
Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and…
We perform Bayesian inference on historical and late Holocene (last 2000 years) rates of sea-level change. The input data to our model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. These data are…
Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…
Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are characterized by wind-triggered upwelling of deep waters along the coast. They are hotspots of biological productivity and diversity and therefore have a high economic, ecological and social…
While numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are essential for forecasting thunderstorms hours in advance, NWP uncertainty, which increases with lead time, limits the predictability of thunderstorm occurrence. This study investigates how…
This study presents a novel machine learning-based (ML) framework that utilizes the ConvLSTM-1D model to hindcast or forecast wave heights at coastal locations using a nonuniform array of wind observations. This approach was applied to Lake…
Very inclined extensive air showers (EAS), with both down-going and up-going trajectories, are particularly targeted by the next generation of extended radio arrays, such as GRAND. Methods to reconstruct the incoming direction, core…
The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…
The evolution of the particle background at an altitude of ~540 km during the time interval between 1996 and 2007 is studied using the particle monitor of the High Energy X-ray Timing Experiment on board NASA's Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer.…
Earth Global and regional effective thermal "conductance" G(eff) (in W/(m^2 C) and often labeled lambda in climate research) and the related Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) are evaluated by applying a modified version of the Energy…
An impact of climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. However, confidently predicting the likelihood of extreme precipitation at seasonal scales remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we…
In this study we compare the representation of the southern hemisphere midlatitude winter variability in the NCEP-NCAR and ERA40 reanalyses. We use the classical Hayashi spectral technique, recently applied to compare the description of the…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
The runup of initial Gaussian narrow-banded and wide-banded wave fields and its statistical characteristics are investigated using direct numerical simulations, based on the nonlinear shallow water equations. The bathymetry consists of the…
Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are important for a wide range of applications, ranging from operational decision making in connection with wind power generation to storm warnings, ship routing and aviation. We present a statistical…
Accurate estimation of daily rainfall return levels associated with large return periods is needed for a number of hydrological planning purposes, including protective infrastructure, dams, and retention basins. This is especially relevant…
Through ensemble-based data assimilation (DA), we address one of the most notorious difficulties in phase-resolved ocean wave forecast, regarding the deviation of numerical solution from the true surface elevation due to the chaotic nature…
Extreme events are the major weather-related hazard for humanity. It is then of crucial importance to have a good understanding of their statistics and to be able to forecast them. However, lack of sufficient data makes their study…
In this paper we present a study of the present state of the Black Sea wave energy. The studies of other authors are based on the use of input data from atmospheric reanalysis or a downscaling of such reanalysis. Instead of reanalysis data,…