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In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…
Differences between time-averaged and ensemble-averaged wind are studied for the case of changing wind direction. We consider a flow driven by a temporally turning pressure gradient in both an idealized case of a staggered cube array and a…
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…
Understanding extreme events and their probability is key for the study of climate change impacts, risk assessment, adaptation, and the protection of living beings. Forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme heatwaves is a primary…
We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…
We propose a new conceptual framework for the prediction of rogue waves and third-order space-time extremes of wind seas that relies on the Tayfun (1980) and Janssen (2009) models coupled with Adler-Taylor (2009) theory on the Euler…
Accurate regional ocean forecasting requires models that are both computationally efficient and capable of representing predictive uncertainty. This work investigates ensemble learning strategies for sea surface temperature (SST)…
Ensembles of forecasts are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather forecasting models with different initial conditions and typically employed to account for forecast uncertainties. However, biases and dispersion errors often occur…
This paper provides some foundations for valid forecasting of rare and extreme heat waves through a better understanding of the similarities and differences between several consecutive hot days under normal circumstances and rare, extreme…
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…
In this study, the wind data series from five locations in Aegean Sea islands, the most active `hotspots' in terms of refugee influx during the Oct/2015 - Jan/2016 period, are investigated. The analysis of the three-per-site data series…
This paper addresses the critical challenge of improving predictions of climate extreme events, specifically heat waves, using machine learning methods. Our work is framed as a classification problem in which we try to predict whether…
There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…
A new operational, ensemble-based search and rescue model for the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea is presented. The stochastic trajectory model computes the net motion of a range of search and rescue objects. A new, robust formulation for…
The rapid expansion of the French offshore wind sector requires a critical reassessment of structural durability in the face of evolving marine conditions driven by climate change. Traditional design methodologies, which rely on the…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean…
We describe various moment-based ensemble interpretation models for the construction of probabilistic temperature forecasts from ensembles. We apply the methods to one year of medium range ensemble forecasts and perform in and out of sample…
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme ocean-temperature events with significant impacts on marine ecosystems and related industries. Accurate forecasts (one to six months ahead) of MHWs would aid in mitigating these impacts. However,…