Related papers: Intervention-Based Stochastic Disease Eradication
We consider the propagation of a contagion process (epidemic) on a network and study the problem of dynamically allocating a fixed curing budget to the nodes of the graph, at each time instant. For bounded degree graphs, we provide a lower…
Recently, different dispersion strategies in population models subject to geometric catastrophes have been considered as strategies to improve the chance of po\-pu\-lation's survival. Such dispersion strategies have been contrasted with the…
We present an analysis of six deterministic models for epidemic spreading. The evolution of the number of individuals of each class is given by ordinary differential equations of the first order in time, which are set up by using the laws…
The main aim to build models capable of simulating the spreading of infectious diseases is to control them. And along this way, the key to find the optimal strategy for disease control is to obtain a large number of simulations of disease…
We study contact epidemic models for the spread of infective diseases in finite populations. The size dependence enters in the infection rate. The dynamics of such models is then analyzed within the deterministic approximation, as well as…
This article examines how diseases on random networks spread in time. The disease is described by a probability distribution function for the number of infected and recovered individuals, and the probability distribution is described by a…
We propose a compartmental model for epidemiology wherein the population is split into groups with either comply or refuse to comply with protocols designed to slow the spread of a disease. Parallel to the disease spread, we assume that…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
'Evolutionary rescue' is the potential for evolution to enable population persistence in a changing environment. Even with eventual rescue, evolutionary time lags can cause the population size to temporarily fall below a threshold…
We develop a stochastic two-patch epidemic model with nonlinear recidivism to investigate infectious disease dynamics in heterogeneous populations. Extending a deterministic framework, we introduce stochasticity to account for random…
We consider the problem of extinction processes on random networks with a given structure. For sufficiently large well-mixed populations, the process of extinction of one or more state variable components occurs in the tail of the…
We study the effects of switching social contacts as a strategy to control epidemic outbreaks. Connections between susceptible and infective individuals can be broken by either individual, and then reconnected to a randomly chosen member of…
We consider a diffusion risk model where proportional reinsurance can be bought. In order to stabilise the surplus process, one tries to keep the drawdown, that is the difference of the surplus to its historical maximum, in an interval…
The extinction of a single species due to demographic stochasticity is analyzed. The discrete nature of the individual agents and the Poissonian noise related to the birth-death processes result in local extinction of a metastable…
The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population's specific connectivity structure. Here a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behavior and…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…
Explicit finite-sample statistical guarantees on model performance are an important ingredient in responsible machine learning. Previous work has focused mainly on bounding either the expected loss of a predictor or the probability that an…
Estimating the required dose in radiotherapy is of crucial importance since the administrated dose should be sufficient to eradicate the tumor and at the same time should inflict minimal damage on normal cells. The probability that a given…
We study the non-equilibrium phase transition between survival and extinction of spatially extended biological populations using an agent-based model. We especially focus on the effects of global temporal fluctuations of the environmental…
Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak…