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We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for changepoints where the number and position of the changepoints are both unknown. In particular, we consider product partition models where it is possible to integrate out model parameters…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-14 Alan Benson , Nial Friel

In this paper we present a novel method for estimating the parameters of a parametric diffusion processes. Our approach is based on a closed-form Maximum Likelihood estimator for an approximating Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 J. L. Kirkby , Dang Nguyen , Duy Nguyen , Nhu Nguyen

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are ubiquitous in probability theory in general and in machine learning in particular. A Markov chain is devised so that its stationary distribution is some probability distribution of interest.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-02 Johan Jonasson

We introduce a new micro-macro Markov chain Monte Carlo method (mM-MCMC) to sample invariant distributions of molecular dynamics systems that exhibit a time-scale separation between the microscopic (fast) dynamics, and the macroscopic…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-02-24 Hannes Vandecasteele , Giovanni Samaey

We compute the stationary distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain which is constructed by gluing together two finite, irreducible Markov chains by identifying a pair of states of one chain with a pair of states of the other and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-22 Bence Mélykúti , Peter Pfaffelhuber

Adaptive Markov chains are an important class of Monte Carlo methods for sampling from probability distributions. The time evolution of adaptive algorithms depends on past samples, and thus these algorithms are non-Markovian. Although there…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-02 Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

Markov chains are an important tool for modelling and evaluating systems in computer science, economics, biology and numerous other fields. Thus, approximating Markov chains is a useful tool for decreasing the computational effort needed…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-16 Patrick Sonnentag

This paper introduces new efficient algorithms for two problems: sampling conditional on vertex degrees in unweighted graphs, and sampling conditional on vertex strengths in weighted graphs. The algorithms can sample conditional on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-19 James Scott , Axel Gandy

To sample from a given target distribution, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling relies on constructing an ergodic Markov chain with the target distribution as its invariant measure. For any MCMC method, an important question is how to…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-15 Federica Milinanni , Pierre Nyquist

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are sampling methods that have become a commonly used tool in statistics, for example to perform Monte Carlo integration. As a consequence of the increase in computational power, many variations of…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-14 F. Din-Houn Lau , Sebastian Krumscheid

This review treats the mathematical and algorithmic foundations of non-reversible Markov chains in the context of event-chain Monte Carlo (ECMC), a continuous-time lifted Markov chain that employs the factorized Metropolis algorithm. It…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2022-08-31 Werner Krauth

Bayesian mixture models are widely applied for unsupervised learning and exploratory data analysis. Markov chain Monte Carlo based on Gibbs sampling and split-merge moves are widely used for inference in these models. However, both methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-06-03 Tue Herlau , Morten Mørup , Yee Whye Teh , Mikkel N. Schmidt

Sequential data naturally arises from user engagement on digital platforms like social media, music streaming services, and web navigation, encapsulating evolving user preferences and behaviors through continuous information streams. A…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-28 Fabian Spaeh , Charalampos E. Tsourakakis

We study the stochastic dynamics of a system of interacting species in a stochastic environment by means of a continuous-time Markov chain with transition rates depending on the state of the environment. Models of gene regulation in systems…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-12-03 Daniele Cappelletti , Abhishek Pal Majumder , Carsten Wiuf

Computational procedures for the stationary probability distribution, the group inverse of the Markovian kernel and the mean first passage times of an irreducible Markov chain, are developed using perturbations. The derivation of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-12 Jeffrey J. Hunter

We consider stochastic reaction networks modeled by continuous-time Markov chains. Such reaction networks often contain many reactions, potentially occurring at different time scales, and have unknown parameters (kinetic rates, total…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-20 Linard Hoessly , Carsten Wiuf

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are based on the construction of a Markov chain with transition probabilities leaving invariant a probability distribution of interest. In this work, we look at these transition probabilities as…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Rocco Caprio , Adam M. Johansen

Adaptive and interacting Markov Chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a novel class of non-Markovian algorithms aimed at improving the simulation efficiency for complicated target distributions. In this paper, we study a general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-07-15 Gersende Fort , Eric Moulines , Pierre Priouret , Pierre Vandekerkhove

In this paper we continue the study of conditional Markov chains (CMCs) with finite state spaces, that we initiated in Bielecki, Jakubowski and Niew\k{e}g{\l}owski (2014a) in an effort to enrich the theory of CMCs that was originated in…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-01 Tomasz R. Bielecki , Jacek Jakubowski , Mariusz Niewęgłowski

Spatially-distributed, nonequilibrium chemical systems described by a Markov chain model are considered. The evolution of such systems arises from a combination of local birth-death reactive events and random walks executed by the particles…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 Mikhail V. Velikanov , Raymond Kapral
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