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Working in the multi-type Galton-Watson branching-process framework we analyse the spread of a pandemic via a general multi-type random contact graph. Our model consists of several communities, and takes, as input, parameters that outline…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-06-14 Dor Minzer , Yaron Oz , Muli Safra , Lior Wainstain

In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-29 Frank G. Ball , David J. Sirl , Pieter Trapman

Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-03-19 C. Buono , L. G. Alvarez Zuzek , P. A. Macri , L. A. Braunstein

In this paper, a branching process approximation for the spread of a Reed-Frost epidemic on a network with tunable clustering is derived. The approximation gives rise to expressions for the epidemic threshold and the probability of a large…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-08-30 Tom Britton , Maria Deijfen , Andreas Nordvall Lagerås , Mathias Lindholm

We couple a multi-type stochastic epidemic process with a directed random graph, where edges have random lengths. This random graph representation is used to characterise the fractions of individuals infected by the different types of…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-29 Tom Britton , Ka Yin Leung , Pieter Trapman

We study the diffusion of epidemics on networks that are partitioned into local communities. The gross structure of hierarchical networks of this kind can be described by a quotient graph. The rationale of this approach is that individuals…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-01-19 Stefano Bonaccorsi , Stefania Ottaviano , Delio Mugnolo , Francesco De Pellegrini

Many dynamic processes on complex networks, from disease outbreaks to cascading failures, can rapidly accelerate once a critical threshold is exceeded, potentially leading to severe social and economic costs. Therefore, in order to develop…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-04-17 L. D. Valdez

One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2011-07-14 Faryad Darabi Sahneh , Caterina Scoglio

Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations…

Physics and Society · Physics 2011-07-05 Duygu Balcan , Alessandro Vespignani

A complex contagion is an infectious process in which individuals may require multiple transmissions before changing state. These are used to model behaviors if an individual only adopts a particular behavior after perceiving a consensus…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-29 Joel C. Miller

Social interactions are stratified in multiple contexts and are subject to complex temporal dynamics. The systematic study of these two features of social systems has started only very recently mainly thanks to the development of multiplex…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-12-12 Quan-Hui Liu , Xinyue Xiong , Qian Zhang , Nicola Perra

Human diseases spread over networks of contacts between individuals and a substantial body of recent research has focused on the dynamics of the spreading process. Here we examine a model of two competing diseases spreading over the same…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-03-19 Brian Karrer , M. E. J. Newman

Epidemic spreading is well understood when a disease propagates around a contact graph. In a stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible setting, spectral conditions characterise whether the disease vanishes. However, modelling human…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-09-15 Desmond John Higham , Henry-Louis de Kergorlay

The threshold model is a simple but classic model of contagion spreading in complex social systems. To capture the complex nature of social influencing we investigate numerically and analytically the transition in the behavior of…

Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-06-23 Mostafa Salehi , Payam Siyari , Matteo Magnani , Danilo Montesi

A wide variety of complex networks (social, biological, information etc.) exhibit local clustering with substantial variation in the clustering coefficient (the probability of neighbors being connected). Existing models of large graphs…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2017-09-28 Samantha Petti , Santosh Vempala

We propose a model for epidemic spreading on a finite complex network with a restriction to at most one contamination per time step. Because of a highly discrete character of the process, the analysis cannot use the continous approximation,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-07-23 Wojciech Ganczarek

The exponential family of random graphs is one of the most promising class of network models. Dependence between the random edges is defined through certain finite subgraphs, analogous to the use of potential energy to provide dependence…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-06-11 Mei Yin

The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneous properties of transportation and commuting patterns among…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2008-03-19 Vittoria Colizza , Alessandro Vespignani

The epidemic threshold of a social system is the ratio of infection and recovery rate above which a disease spreading in it becomes an epidemic. In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e. vaccines), the only way to control a given…

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