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We develop asymptotic approximations that can be applied to sequential estimation and inference problems, adaptive randomized controlled trials, and related settings. In batched adaptive settings where the decision at one stage can affect…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Keisuke Hirano , Jack R. Porter

Often the regression function is specified by a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) involving some unknown parameters. Typically analytical solution of the ODEs is not available, and hence likelihood evaluation at many…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-23 Prithwish Bhaumik , Subhashis Ghosal

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a widely used inference method in Bayesian statistics to bypass the point-wise computation of the likelihood. In this paper we develop theoretical bounds for the distance between the statistics used…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-03 James Ridgway

In this article, we present a visual introduction to Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP), an approximate probabilistic inference algorithm that operates by passing messages between the nodes of arbitrarily structured factor graphs. A special…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-07-07 Joseph Ortiz , Talfan Evans , Andrew J. Davison

We consider the estimation of an i.i.d. (possibly non-Gaussian) vector $\xbf \in \R^n$ from measurements $\ybf \in \R^m$ obtained by a general cascade model consisting of a known linear transform followed by a probabilistic componentwise…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2012-12-04 Ulugbek S. Kamilov , Sundeep Rangan , Alyson K. Fletcher , Michael Unser

For noisy compressive sensing systems, the asymptotic distortion with respect to an arbitrary distortion function is determined when a general class of least-square based reconstruction schemes is employed. The sampling matrix is considered…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-04-27 Ali Bereyhi , Ralf Müller , Hermann Schulz-Baldes

This paper presents a general asymptotic theory of sequential Bayesian estimation giving results for the strongest, almost sure convergence. We show that under certain smoothness conditions on the probability model, the greedy information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-11 Janne V. Kujala

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are applicable to statistical models specified by generative processes with analytically intractable likelihoods. These methods try to approximate the posterior density of a model parameter by…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-11 Sanjay Chaudhuri , Subhroshekhar Ghosh , Kim Cuc Pham

Approximate Bayes Computations (ABC) are used for parameter inference when the likelihood function of the model is expensive to evaluate but relatively cheap to sample from. In particle ABC, an ensemble of particles in the product space of…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-15 Carlo Albert , Hans R. Kuensch , Andreas Scheidegger

We revisit the Bayesian Context Trees (BCT) modelling framework for discrete time series, which was recently found to be very effective in numerous tasks including model selection, estimation and prediction. A novel representation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-21 Ioannis Papageorgiou , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

Belief propagation (BP) can do exact inference in loop-free graphs, but its performance could be poor in graphs with loops, and the understanding of its solution is limited. This work gives an interpretable belief propagation rule that is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-26 Dong Liu , Nima N. Moghadam , Lars K. Rasmussen , Jinliang Huang , Saikat Chatterjee

We revisit the asymptotic bias analysis of the distributed Pareto optimization algorithm developed based on the diffusion strategies. We propose an alternative way to analyze the asymptotic bias of this algorithm at small step-sizes and…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2016-06-07 Reza Arablouei , Kutluyıl Doğançay , Stefan Werner , Yih-Fang Huang

One of the main problems of importance sampling in Bayesian networks is representation of the importance function, which should ideally be as close as possible to the posterior joint distribution. Typically, we represent an importance…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-09 Changhe Yuan , Marek J. Druzdzel

Belief propagation -- a powerful heuristic method to solve inference problems involving a large number of random variables -- was recently generalized to quantum theory. Like its classical counterpart, this algorithm is exact on trees when…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 David Poulin , Ersen Bilgin

Variational message passing (VMP), belief propagation (BP) and expectation propagation (EP) have found their wide applications in complex statistical signal processing problems. In addition to viewing them as a class of algorithms operating…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-01-20 Dan Zhang , Xiaohang Song , Wenjin Wang , Gerhard Fettweis , Xiqi Gao

In this paper we propose a new deterministic approximation method, called discretization approximation, for Bayesian computation. Discretization approximation is very simple to understand and to implement, It only requires calculating…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-13 Shifeng Xiong

We give a pedagogical introduction to the Bethe ansatz techniques in integrable QFTs and spin chains. We first discuss and motivate the general framework of asymptotic Bethe ansatz for the spectrum of integrable QFTs in large volume, based…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2016-07-26 Fedor Levkovich-Maslyuk

This chapter will appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). The conceptual and methodological framework that underpins approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is targetted primarily towards problems in…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-20 Christopher C Drovandi , Clara Grazian , Kerrie Mengersen , Christian Robert

An exact closed form solution for the return probability of a random walk on the Bethe lattice is given. The long-time asymptotic form confirms a previously known expression. It is however shown that this exact result reduces to the proper…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-22 Achille Giacometti

Inference problems in graphical models can be represented as a constrained optimization of a free energy function. It is known that when the Bethe free energy is used, the fixedpoints of the belief propagation (BP) algorithm correspond to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Tamir Hazan , Amnon Shashua