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We derive an (almost) guaranteed upper bound on the error of deep neural networks under distribution shift using unlabeled test data. Prior methods either give bounds that are vacuous in practice or give estimates that are accurate on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-02 Elan Rosenfeld , Saurabh Garg

We consider the problem of estimating a $d$-dimensional discrete distribution from its samples observed under a $b$-bit communication constraint. In contrast to most previous results that largely focus on the global minimax error, we study…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Wei-Ning Chen , Peter Kairouz , Ayfer Özgür

We derive a tight lower bound on equivocation (conditional entropy), or equivalently a tight upper bound on mutual information between a signal variable and channel outputs. The bound is in terms of the joint distribution of the signals and…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-01-14 Michal Hledík , Thomas R. Sokolowski , Gašper Tkačik

This paper deals with Bayesian estimations of scale parameter of the exponential distribution based on upper record range (Rn). This has been done in two steps; point and interval. In the first step the quadratic, squared error and absolute…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-26 P. Nasiri , S. Hosseini , M. Yarmohammadi , F. Hatami

Tight lower and upper bounds on the ratio of relative entropies of two probability distributions with respect to a common third one are established, where the three distributions are collinear in the standard $(n-1)$-simplex. These bounds…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-05-31 Shengtian Yang , Jun Chen

In a recent paper, the authors proposed a general methodology for probabilistic learning on manifolds. The method was used to generate numerical samples that are statistically consistent with an existing dataset construed as a realization…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-30 C. Soizea , R. Ghanem , C. Safta , X. Huan , Z. P. Vane , J. Oefelein , G. Lacaz , H. N. Najm , Q. Tang , X. Chen

We present a new method to propagate lower bounds on conditional probability distributions in conventional Bayesian networks. Our method guarantees to provide outer approximations of the exact lower bounds. A key advantage is that we can…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Daniel Andrade , Bernhard Sick

A central problem in Binary Hypothesis Testing (BHT) is to determine the optimal tradeoff between the Type I error (referred to as false alarm) and Type II (referred to as miss) error. In this context, the exponential rate of convergence of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-11-29 Sebastian Espinosa , Jorge F. Silva , Pablo Piantanida

In statistical classification and machine learning, classification error is an important performance measure, which is minimized by the Bayes decision rule. In practice, the unknown true distribution is usually replaced with a model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Zijian Yang , Vahe Eminyan , Ralf Schlüter , Hermann Ney

This paper proposes an easy-to-compute upper bound for the overlap index between two probability distributions without requiring any knowledge of the distribution models. The computation of our bound is time-efficient and memory-efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Hao Fu , Prashanth Krishnamurthy , Siddharth Garg , Farshad Khorrami

Probabilistic reasoning systems combine different probabilistic rules and probabilistic facts to arrive at the desired probability values of consequences. In this paper we describe the MESA-algorithm (Maximum Entropy by Simulated Annealing)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Gerhard Paaß

Ordinal classification problems, where labels exhibit a natural order, are prevalent in high-stakes fields such as medicine and finance. Accurate uncertainty quantification, including the decomposition into aleatoric (inherent variability)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Stefan Haas , Eyke Hüllermeier

Established approaches to obtain generalization bounds in data-driven optimization and machine learning mostly build on solutions from empirical risk minimization (ERM), which depend crucially on the functional complexity of the hypothesis…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-10-14 Yibo Zeng , Henry Lam

Chernoff coefficient is an upper bound of Bayes error probability in classification problem. In this paper, we will develop sharp Chernoff type bound on Bayes error probability. The new bound is not only an upper bound but also a lower…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-01 Zhixin Zhou , Ping Li

This paper provides tight bounds on the R\'enyi entropy of a function of a discrete random variable with a finite number of possible values, where the considered function is not one-to-one. To that end, a tight lower bound on the R\'enyi…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-12-11 Igal Sason

A common statistical situation concerns inferring an unknown distribution Q(x) from a known distribution P(y), where X (dimension n), and Y (dimension m) have a known functional relationship. Most commonly, n<m, and the task is relatively…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-02-01 Jayajit Das , Sayak Mukherjee , Susan E. Hodge

In statistical classification/multiple hypothesis testing and machine learning, a model distribution estimated from the training data is usually applied to replace the unknown true distribution in the Bayes decision rule, which introduces a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Zijian Yang , Vahe Eminyan , Ralf Schlüter , Hermann Ney

Information divergence functions play a critical role in statistics and information theory. In this paper we show that a non-parametric f-divergence measure can be used to provide improved bounds on the minimum binary classification…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-02-11 Visar Berisha , Alan Wisler , Alfred O. Hero , Andreas Spanias

We show a direct relationship between the variance and the differential entropy for subclasses of symmetric and asymmetric unimodal distributions by providing an upper bound on variance in terms of entropy power. Combining this bound with…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-11-27 Hye Won Chung , Brian M. Sadler , Alfred O. Hero

The maximum entropy principle is a powerful tool for solving underdetermined inverse problems. This paper considers the problem of discretizing a continuous distribution, which arises in various applied fields. We obtain the approximating…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-05 Ken'ichiro Tanaka , Alexis Akira Toda