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This report is devoted to the forecast of the UEFA EURO 2020, Europe's continental football championship, taking place across Europe in June/July 2021. We present the simulation results for this tournament, where the simulations are based…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-10 Lorenz A. Gilch

Tracking the build-up of financial vulnerabilities is a key component of financial stability policy. Due to the complexity of the financial system, this task is daunting, and there have been several proposals on how to manage this goal. One…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-19 Katalin Varga , Tibor Szendrei

Motivated by the current fears of a potentially stagflationary global economic environment, this paper uses new and recently introduced mathematical techniques to study multivariate time series pertaining to country inflation (CPI),…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-09-22 Nick James , Max Menzies , Kevin Chin

We propose a statistical model for weighted temporal networks capable of measuring the level of heterogeneity in a financial system. Our model focuses on the level of diversification of financial institutions; that is, whether they are more…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-15 Juraj Hledik , Riccardo Rastelli

An empirical analysis on Eurodollar interest rates daily data in the time period 1990-1996, is performed and compared with Libor data in the time period 1984-1998. The complementary cumulative distributions for the daily fluctuations at…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Tiziana Di Matteo , Tomaso Aste

The relation between time series irreversibility and entropy production has been recently investigated in thermodynamic systems operating away from equilibrium. In this work we explore this concept in the context of financial time series.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-01-11 Lucas Lacasa , Ryan Flanagan

The integration of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries into the European Economic Area serves as a valuable experiment for the regional economic development theory. The long-lasting convergence of these economies with more advanced…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-07 Lesya Kolinets , Vygintas Gontis

The transformation of the energy system has raised concerns about the reliability of fully renewable energy systems. We address this question for a 2050 European energy system using an economically optimal adequacy assessment. Our results…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-02 David Franzmann , Nils Ludwig , Jochen Linßen , Detlef Stolten , Heidi Heinrichs

The assessment of corporate sustainability performance is extremely relevant in facilitating the transition to a green and low-carbon intensity economy. However, companies located in different areas may be subject to different…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-30 Caterina Morelli , Simone Boccaletti , Paolo Maranzano , Philipp Otto

The availability of historical data related to electricity day-ahead prices and to the underlying price formation process is limited. In addition, the electricity market in Europe is facing a rapid transformation, which limits the…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-27 Raffaele Sgarlato

Europe is warming at the fastest rate of all continents, experiencing a temperature increase of about 1{\deg}C higher than the corresponding global increase. Aiming to be the first climate-neutral continent by 2050 under the European Green…

The European Union (EU) has long favored a risk-based approach to regulation. Such an approach is also used in recent cyber security legislation enacted in the EU. Risks are also inherently related to compliance with the new legislation.…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-09-01 Jukka Ruohonen , Jesper Løffler Nielsen , Jakub Skórczynski

In finite-dimensional dynamical systems, stochastic stability provides the selection of physical relevant measures from the myriad invariant measures of conservative systems. That this might also apply to infinite-dimensional systems is the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-12-12 F. Cipriano , H. Ouerdiane , R. Vilela Mendes

Since its inception, the E.U.'s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) aimed at ensuring an adequate and stable farm income. While recognizing that the CAP pursues a larger set of objectives, this thesis focuses on the impact of the CAP on the…

General Economics · Economics 2022-12-07 Luigi Biagini , Simone Severini

Used to investigate the presence of distinctive recurrent behaviours in natural processes, the recurrence plots can be applied to the analysis of economic data, and, in particular, to the characterization of exchange rates of currencies…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-08-06 Amelia Carolina Sparavigna

We investigate the impact of several critical events associated with the Russo Ukrainian war, started officially on 24 February 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on ten European electricity markets, two natural gas markets (the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-11 Panayotis G. Papaioannou , George P. Papaioannou , George Evangelidis , George Gavalakis

According to Eurostat estimates, the overall number of farms in Europe declined of about 3 million units between 2010 and 2020. Parallel, the agricultural standard output increased from 304 billion to nearly 360 billion over the same…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-04-30 Simone Boccaletti , Paolo Maranzano , Miguel Viegas

Monetary integration has both costs and benefits. Europeans have a strong aversion to exchange rate instability. From this perspective, the EMS has shown its limits and full monetary union involving a single currency appears to be a…

General Economics · Economics 2018-07-23 Chris Kirrane

Decomposing taxes by source (labor, capital, sales), we analyze the impact of automation on tax revenues and the structure of taxation in 19 EU countries during 1995-2016. Pre-2008, robot diffusion lead to decreasing factor and tax income,…

General Economics · Economics 2022-04-25 Kerstin Hötte , Angelos Theodorakopoulos , Pantelis Koutroumpis

We show how bad and good volatility propagate through forex markets, i.e., we provide evidence for asymmetric volatility connectedness on forex markets. Using high-frequency, intra-day data of the most actively traded currencies over 2007 -…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-07-28 Jozef Barunik , Evzen Kocenda , Lukas Vacha