Related papers: On The EU and Euro-zone Stability
The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical…
Prior research has shown that autocorrelation and variance in voltage measurements tend to increase as power systems approach instability. This paper seeks to identify the conditions under which these statistical indicators provide reliable…
On Jan. 1, 1999 the European Union introduced a common currency Euro ($EUR$), to become the legal currency in all eleven countries which form the $EUR$. In order to test the $EUR$ behavior and understand various features, the $EUR$ exchange…
When we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a stochastic system, the simulation often contains input distributions estimated from real-world data; therefore, there is both simulation and input uncertainty in the performance…
In many European countries the growth of the real GDP per capita has been linear since 1950. An explanation for this linearity is still missing. We propose that in artificial intelligence we may find models for a linear growth of…
In December 2023, the European Parliament provisionally agreed on the EU AI Act. This unprecedented regulatory framework for AI systems lays out guidelines to ensure the safety, legality, and trustworthiness of AI products. This paper…
This paper introduces a novel approach to financial crisis prediction by establishing a thermodynamic-like framework derived from the fluctuation theorem of statistical physics. We define market temperature through the probability ratio of…
On-demand service platforms face a challenging problem of forecasting a large collection of high-frequency regional demand data streams that exhibit instabilities. This paper develops a novel forecast framework that is fast and scalable,…
This paper identifies and analyzes six key strategies used to exploit the Eurosystem's financial mechanisms, and attempts a quantitative reconstruction: inflating TARGET balances, leveraging collateral swaps followed by defaults, diluting…
A unified viewpoint is presented in margin to the ``Work, dissipation and fluctuations in nonequilibrium physics'', Bruxelles 22-25 March, 2006, where the topics were discussed by various authors and it became clear the need that the very…
Quantifying errors and losses due to the use of Floating-Point (FP) calculations in industrial scientific computing codes is an important part of the Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) process. Stochastic…
The European day-ahead electricity market is split into multiple bidding zones with a uniform price. The increase in renewables leads to a growing number of interventions in the generation of energy sources and increasing redispatch costs.…
Recent developments in the global liberalization of equity and currency markets, coupled to advances in trading technologies, are making markets increasingly interdependent. This increased fluidity raises questions about the stability of…
Metastability is a phenomenon observed in stochastic systems which stay in a false-equilibrium within a region of its state space until the occurrence of a sequence of rare events that leads to an abrupt transition to a different region.…
This contribution covers the topics presented by the authors at the {\it ``Fundamental Problems of Turbulence, 50 Years after the Marseille Conference 1961"} meeting that took place in Marseille in 2011. It focuses on some of the…
Electricity accounts for 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing emissions related to electricity consumption requires accurate measurements readily available to consumers, regulators and investors. In this case study, we propose a…
We found a unified formula for description of the household incomes of all society classes, for instance, for the European Union in years 2005-2010. The formula is more general than well known that of Yakovenko et al. because, it…
An attempt is made to estimate and forecast the trend of the global annual and monthly mean temperatures. The results of a conventional statistical analysis suggest that in the absence of unforeseeable events such as a sudden acceleration…
Thermodynamic uncertainty relations (TURs) express a fundamental tradeoff between the precision (inverse scaled variance) of any thermodynamic current by functionals of the average entropy production. Relying on purely variational…
Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…