Related papers: Is There a Role for Qualitative Risk Assessment?
Scenario Analysis is a risk assessment tool that aims to evaluate the impact of a small number of distinct plausible future scenarios. In this paper, we provide an overview of important aspects of Scenario Analysis including when it is…
In the present article we use the quantum formalism to describe the effects of risk and ambiguity in decision theory. The main idea is that the probabilities in the classic theory of expected utility are estimated probabilities, and thus do…
The purpose of the research presented in this article is to develop a dynamic system for forecasting and minimizing the risks of an industrial company based on their quantitative assessment. The article considers the conceptual apparatus of…
Although general-purpose AI systems offer transformational opportunities in science and industry, they simultaneously raise critical concerns about safety, misuse, and potential loss of control. Despite these risks, methods for assessing…
Inspired by widely-used techniques of causal modelling in risk, failure, and accident analysis, this work discusses a compositional framework for risk modelling. Risk models capture fragments of the space of risky events likely to occur…
Quantitative aspects of computation are related to the use of both physical and mathematical quantities, including time, performance metrics, probability, and measures for reliability and security. They are essential in characterizing the…
Probability Quantification (PQ) predictions of the efficacy of safety-critical protective systems is challenging. Yet, the popularity of PQ methodologies (e.g., Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) and…
We develop a qualitative model of decision making with two aims: to describe how people make simple decisions and to enable computer programs to do the same. Current approaches based on Planning or Decisions Theory either ignore uncertainty…
Risk assessment instruments are used across the criminal justice system to estimate the probability of some future behavior given covariates. The estimated probabilities are then used in making decisions at the individual level. In the…
With the growing interest in deploying robots in unstructured and uncertain environments, there has been increasing interest in factoring risk into safety-critical control development. Similarly, the authors believe risk should also be…
This paper investigates the possibility of performing automated reasoning in probabilistic logic when probabilities are expressed by means of linguistic quantifiers. Each linguistic term is expressed as a prescribed interval of proportions.…
Probabilistic program analysis aims to quantify the probability that a given program satisfies a required property. It has many potential applications, from program understanding and debugging to computing program reliability, compiler…
Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform…
Finance is one of the promising field for industrial application of quantum computing. In particular, quantum algorithms for calculation of risk measures such as the value at risk and the conditional value at risk of a credit portfolio have…
We present a novel approach to uncertainty quantification in classification tasks based on label-wise decomposition of uncertainty measures. This label-wise perspective allows uncertainty to be quantified at the individual class level,…
We introduce a neural network approach for assessing the risk of a portfolio of assets and liabilities over a given time period. This requires a conditional valuation of the portfolio given the state of the world at a later time, a problem…
We argue that quantifying software reliability is important in demonstrating that system-level risks are As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). Furthermore, we demonstrate that such quantification is possible in at least one meaningful…
We propose a formal framework for intelligent systems which can reason about scientific domains, in particular about the carcinogenicity of chemicals, and we study its properties. Our framework is grounded in a philosophy of scientific…
Resiliency has garnered attention in the management of critical infrastructure as a metric of system performance, but there are significant roadblocks to its implementation in a realistic decision-making framework. Contrasted to risk and…
The reasoning with qualitative uncertainty measures involves comparative statements about events in terms of their likeliness without necessarily assigning an exact numerical value to these events. The paper is divided into two parts. In…