Related papers: Is There a Role for Qualitative Risk Assessment?
It is proposed to define "quantumness" of a system (micro or macroscopic, physical, biological, social, political) by starting with understanding that quantum mechanics is a statistical theory. It says us only about probability…
Proactive cyber-risk assessment is gaining momentum due to the wide range of sectors that can benefit from the prevention of cyber-incidents by preserving integrity, confidentiality, and the availability of data. The rising attention to…
Recent years have seen many advances in methods for causal structure learning from data. The empirical assessment of such methods, however, is much less developed. Motivated by this gap, we pose the following question: how can one assess,…
Computational models in chemistry rely on a number of approximations. The effect of such approximations on observables derived from them is often unpredictable. Therefore, it is challenging to quantify the uncertainty of a computational…
Increasing integration and availability of data on large groups of persons has been accompanied by proliferation of statistical and other algorithmic prediction tools in banking, insurance, marketiNg, medicine, and other FIelds (see e.g.,…
Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the…
Privacy risk assessments aim to analyze and quantify the privacy risks associated with new systems. As such, they are critically important in ensuring that adequate privacy protections are built in. However, current methods to quantify…
We introduce probability estimation, a broadly applicable framework to certify randomness in a finite sequence of measurement results without assuming that these results are independent and identically distributed. Probability estimation…
Though the ability of human beings to deal with probabilities has been put into question, the assessment of rarity is a crucial competence underlying much of human decision-making and is pervasive in spontaneous narrative behaviour. This…
In this paper we propose a framework for assessing the risk associated with deploying a machine learning model in a specified environment. For that we carry over the risk definition from decision theory to machine learning. We develop and…
Qualitative research is an approach to understanding social phenomenon based around human interpretation of data, particularly text. Probabilistic topic modelling is a machine learning approach that is also based around the analysis of text…
According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its…
Quantitative aspects of computation are important and sometimes essential in characterising the behavior and determining the properties of systems. They are related to the use of physical quantities (storage space, time, bandwidth, etc.) as…
It is often the case that risk assessment and prognostics are viewed as related but separate tasks. This chapter describes a risk-based approach to prognostics that seeks to provide a tighter coupling between risk assessment and fault…
The combination of argumentation and probability paves the way to new accounts of qualitative and quantitative uncertainty, thereby offering new theoretical and applicative opportunities. Due to a variety of interests, probabilistic…
Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point,…
Many real-world situations of ethical and economic relevance, such as collective (in)action with respect to the climate crisis, involve not only diverse agents whose decisions interact in complicated ways, but also various forms of…
We propose a formal treatment of scenarios in the context of a dialectical argumentation formalism for qualitative reasoning about uncertain propositions. Our formalism extends prior work in which arguments for and against uncertain…
In the report the approach to estimation of quality of planned experiments is considered. This approach is based on the analysis of uncertainty, which will take place under the future hypotheses testing about the existence of a new…
There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability…