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Traditional approaches to data visualization have often focused on comparing different subsets of data, and this is reflected in the many techniques developed and evaluated over the years for visual comparison. Similarly, common workflows…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-02-27 David Borland , Arran Zeyu Wang , David Gotz

Answering counterfactual queries has important applications such as explainability, robustness, and fairness but is challenging when the causal variables are unobserved and the observations are non-linear mixtures of these latent variables,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Zeyu Zhou , Ruqi Bai , Sean Kulinski , Murat Kocaoglu , David I. Inouye

Counterfactual explanations are one of the most popular methods to make predictions of black box machine learning models interpretable by providing explanations in the form of `what-if scenarios'. Most current approaches optimize a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-16 Susanne Dandl , Christoph Molnar , Martin Binder , Bernd Bischl

Counterfactual explanations provide means for prescriptive model explanations by suggesting actionable feature changes (e.g., increase income) that allow individuals to achieve favorable outcomes in the future (e.g., insurance approval).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Martin Pawelczyk , Sascha Bielawski , Johannes van den Heuvel , Tobias Richter , Gjergji Kasneci

This paper introduces the concept of rational countefactuals which is an idea of identifying a counterfactual from the factual (whether perceived or real) that maximizes the attainment of the desired consequent. In counterfactual thinking…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-04-09 Tshilidzi Marwala

Recently, eXplainable AI (XAI) research has focused on counterfactual explanations as post-hoc justifications for AI-system decisions (e.g. a customer refused a loan might be told: If you asked for a loan with a shorter term, it would have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-10 Saugat Aryal , Mark T Keane

As machine learning models evolve, maintaining transparency demands more human-centric explainable AI techniques. Counterfactual explanations, with roots in human reasoning, identify the minimal input changes needed to obtain a given output…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Marharyta Domnich , Julius Välja , Rasmus Moorits Veski , Giacomo Magnifico , Kadi Tulver , Eduard Barbu , Raul Vicente

In this position paper we discuss three main shortcomings of existing approaches to counterfactual causality from the computer science perspective, and sketch lines of work to try and overcome these issues: (1) causality definitions should…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2017-10-11 Gregor Gössler , Oleg Sokolsky , Jean-Bernard Stefani

We show that it is possible to understand and identify a decision maker's subjective causal judgements by observing her preferences over interventions. Following Pearl [2000], we represent causality using causal models (also called…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-01-23 Joseph Y. Halpern , Evan Piermont

Many sequential decision-making systems leverage data collected using prior policies to propose a new policy. For critical applications, it is important that high-confidence guarantees on the new policy's behavior are provided before…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-26 Yash Chandak , Shiv Shankar , Philip S. Thomas

The use of counterfactuals for considerations of algorithmic fairness and explainability is gaining prominence within the machine learning community and industry. This paper argues for more caution with the use of counterfactuals when the…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-02-11 Atoosa Kasirzadeh , Andrew Smart

Counterfactuals in quantitative trade and spatial models are functions of the current state of the world and the model parameters. Common practice treats the current state of the world as perfectly observed, but there is good reason to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-05 Bas Sanders

Counterfactual reasoning has emerged as a crucial technique for generalizing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). By generating and analyzing counterfactual scenarios, researchers can assess the adaptability and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Shuai Yang , Qi Yang , Luoxi Tang , Yuqiao Meng , Nancy Guo , Jeremy Blackburn , Zhaohan Xi

AI-driven outcomes can be challenging for end-users to understand. Explanations can address two key questions: "Why this outcome?" (factual) and "Why not another?" (counterfactual). While substantial efforts have been made to formalize…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-21 Suryani Lim , Henri Prade , Gilles Richard

We consider large-scale systems influenced by burnout variables - state variables that start active, shape dynamics, and irreversibly deactivate once certain conditions are met. Simulating what-if scenarios in such systems is…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2025-09-05 Benjamin Heymann

Counterfactual explanations are an emerging tool to enhance interpretability of deep learning models. Given a sample, these methods seek to find and display to the user similar samples across the decision boundary. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Cassio F. Dantas , Diego Marcos , Dino Ienco

Recent work by Chatzi et al. and Ravfogel et al. has developed, for the first time, a method for generating counterfactuals of probabilistic Large Language Models. Such counterfactuals tell us what would - or might - have been the output of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Sander Beckers

Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that adversely affects management decisions, and mathematical modelling is an aid to its detailed understanding. Bias in opinion update about the value of a parameter is modelled here assuming that…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2022-02-08 Rose D Baker

This paper presents a model of contrastive explanation using structural casual models. The topic of causal explanation in artificial intelligence has gathered interest in recent years as researchers and practitioners aim to increase trust…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-22 Tim Miller

Graphical models can represent a multivariate distribution in a convenient and accessible form as a graph. Causal models can be viewed as a special class of graphical models that not only represent the distribution of the observed system…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-29 Christina Heinze-Deml , Marloes H. Maathuis , Nicolai Meinshausen