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The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be…

Causal and counterfactual reasoning are emerging directions in data science that allow us to reason about hypothetical scenarios. This is particularly useful in fields like environmental and ecological sciences, where interventional data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Rafael Cabañas , Ana D. Maldonado , María Morales , Pedro A. Aguilera , Antonio Salmerón

Bayesian statistics is concerned with conducting posterior inference for the unknown quantities in a given statistical model. Conventional Bayesian inference requires the specification of a probabilistic model for the observed data, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-11 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi , David J. Nott

We develop simple methods for constructing likelihoods and parameter priors for learning about the parameters and structure of a Bayesian network. In particular, we introduce several assumptions that permit the construction of likelihoods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-01 David Heckerman , Dan Geiger

Increasing amounts of available data have led to a heightened need for representing large-scale probabilistic knowledge bases. One approach is to use a probabilistic database, a model with strong assumptions that allow for efficiently…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-04-04 Tal Friedman , Guy Van den Broeck

Bayesian networks provide a modeling language and associated inference algorithm for stochastic domains. They have been successfully applied in a variety of medium-scale applications. However, when faced with a large complex domain, the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Daphne Koller , Avi Pfeffer

Within this study, we propose a new approach for natural language processing using Bayesian networks to predict and analyze the context and how this approach can be applied to the Community Question Answering domain. We discuss how Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-04 Alexey Gorbatovski , Sergey Kovalchuk

A comprehensive artificial intelligence system needs to not only perceive the environment with different `senses' (e.g., seeing and hearing) but also infer the world's conditional (or even causal) relations and corresponding uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-07 Hao Wang , Dit-Yan Yeung

Natural language semantics has recently sought to combine the complementary strengths of formal and distributional approaches to meaning. More specifically, proposals have been put forward to augment formal semantic machinery with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-03-03 Noortje J. Venhuizen , Petra Hendriks , Matthew W. Crocker , Harm Brouwer

Background: Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that leverage Bayes' theorem to portray dependencies and cause-and-effect relationships between variables. These networks have gained prominence in the field of health…

Bayesian networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models for describing complex joint probability distributions. The main problem for BNs is inference: Determine the probability of an event given observed evidence. Since exact inference…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2018-03-01 Kevin Batz , Benjamin Lucien Kaminski , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Christoph Matheja

Bivariate count data arise in several different disciplines (epidemiology, marketing, sports statistics, etc., to name but a few) and the bivariate Poisson distribution which is a generalization of the Poisson distribution plays an…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-12 Barry C. Arnold , Indranil Ghosh

Probabilistic record linkage (PRL) is the process of determining which records in two databases correspond to the same underlying entity in the absence of a unique identifier. Bayesian solutions to this problem provide a powerful mechanism…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-05 Brendan S. McVeigh , Jared S. Murray

Probability trees are one of the simplest models of causal generative processes. They possess clean semantics and -- unlike causal Bayesian networks -- they can represent context-specific causal dependencies, which are necessary for e.g.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-13 Tim Genewein , Tom McGrath , Grégoire Déletang , Vladimir Mikulik , Miljan Martic , Shane Legg , Pedro A. Ortega

A method for computing probabilistic propositions is presented. It assumes the availability of a single external routine for computing the probability of one instantiated variable, given a conjunction of other instantiated variables. In…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-11 Gregory F. Cooper

This paper introduces a novel type theory and logic for probabilistic reasoning. Its logic is quantitative, with fuzzy predicates. It includes normalisation and conditioning of states. This conditioning uses a key aspect that distinguishes…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-04-02 Robin Adams , Bart Jacobs

Comprehensible explanations of probabilistic reasoning are a prerequisite for wider acceptance of Bayesian methods in expert systems and decision support systems. A study of human reasoning under uncertainty suggests two different…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 Max Henrion , Marek J. Druzdzel

Definitions and notations with historical references are given for some numerical coefficients commonly used to quantify relations among collections of objects for the purpose of expressing approximate knowledge and probabilistic reasoning.

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-11 Silvio Ursic

Learning the structure of Bayesian networks from data provides insights into underlying processes and the causal relationships that generate the data, but its usefulness depends on the homogeneity of the data population, a condition often…

A Bayesian Network is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) on a set of $n$ random variables (the vertices); a Bayesian Network Distribution (BND) is a probability distribution on the random variables that is Markovian on the graph. A finite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-01 Spencer L. Gordon , Bijan Mazaheri , Yuval Rabani , Leonard J. Schulman