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Mathematical programming formulations of influence diagrams can bridge the gap between representing and solving decision problems. However, they suffer from both modeling and computational limitations. Aiming to address modeling…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-19 Olli Herrala , Tommi Ekholm , Fabricio Oliveira

Accurate atomic data and plasma models are essential for interpreting the upcoming high-quality spectra from missions like XRISM and Athena. Estimating physical quantities, like temperature, abundance, turbulence, and resonance scattering…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2023-12-21 Priyanka Chakraborty , Rachel Hemmer , Adam R. Foster , John Raymond , Arnab Sarkar , Randall Smith , Nancy Brickhouse

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

We present a method to quantify uncertainty in the predictions made by simulations of mathematical models that can be applied to a broad class of stochastic, discrete, and differential equation models. Quantifying uncertainty is crucial for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-05 Kyle S. Hickmann , James M. Hyman , Sara Y. Del Valle

Uncertainty quantification has emerged as a rapidly growing field in nuclear science. Theoretical predictions of physical observables often involve extrapolations to regions that are poorly constrained by laboratory experiments and…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2020-10-14 Wei-Chia Chen , J. Piekarewicz

Functional data analysis is proved to be useful in many scientific applications. The physical process is observed as curves and often there are several curves observed due to multiple subjects, providing the replicates in statistical sense.…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-30 Tapabrata Maiti , Abolfazl Safikhani , Ping-Shou Zhong

This guide offers suggestions/insights on uncertainty quantification of nuclear structure models. We discuss a simple approach to statistical error estimates, strategies to assess systematic errors, and show how to uncover…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2014-05-26 J. Dobaczewski , W. Nazarewicz , P. -G. Reinhard

The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

In this paper, we address the problem of uncertainty propagation through nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems. More precisely, given a discrete-time continuous-state probabilistic nonlinear dynamical system, we aim at finding the sequence…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-01 Ashkan Jasour , Allen Wang , Brian C. Williams

Propagating uncertainties introduced by chemical reaction rate parameters to high-fidelity numerical simulations of complex combustion devices is necessary to ascertain impact on computational predictions. However, the high cost of detailed…

Computational Physics · Physics 2026-03-12 Vansh Sharma , Shuzhi Zhang , Rahul Jain , Venkat Raman

The effects of the quantized electromagnetic fields on the spectral statistics of two-level atoms are considered. We have used the Berry- Robnik distribution and Maximum Likelihood estimation technique to analyze the effect of mean photon…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-02-14 H. Sabri

Developments in the description of the masses of atomic nuclei have led to various nuclear mass models that provide predictions for masses across the whole chart of nuclides. These mass models play an important role in understanding the…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2024-02-28 Yukiya Saito , Iris Dillmann , Reiner Kruecken , Matthew R. Mumpower , Rebecca Surman

We report an evaluation of a semi-empirical quantum chemical method PM7 from the perspective of uncertainty quantification. Specifically, we apply Bound-to-Bound Data Collaboration, an uncertainty quantification framework, to characterize…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2018-09-17 James Oreluk , Zhenyuan Liu , Arun Hegde , Wenyu Li , Andrew Packard , Michael Frenklach , Dmitry Zubarev

Predictive uncertainty estimation remains a challenging problem precluding the use of deep neural networks as subsystems within safety-critical applications. Aleatoric uncertainty is a component of predictive uncertainty that cannot be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Angel Daruna , Yunye Gong , Abhinav Rajvanshi , Han-Pang Chiu , Yi Yao

A comprehensive uncertainty estimation is vital for the precision program of the LHC. While experimental uncertainties are often described by stochastic processes and well-defined nuisance parameters, theoretical uncertainties lack such a…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2023-05-08 Aishik Ghosh , Benjamin Nachman , Tilman Plehn , Lily Shire , Tim M. P. Tait , Daniel Whiteson

In this article we study the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in an experiment with a technical system. We propose new density estimates which combine observed data of the technical system and simulated data from an (imperfect)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-21 Sebastian Kersting , Michael Kohler

The current need for atomic data to model stellar spectra obtained in various wavelength ranges is described. The level of completeness and accuracy of these data is discussed.

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-10-01 R. Monier

In this article we report the release of a new program for calculating the emissivity of atomic transitions. The program, which can be obtained with its documentation from our website www.scienceware.net, passed various rigorous tests and…

Atomic Physics · Physics 2010-05-12 Taha Sochi

The design of next-generation alloys through the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) approach relies on multi-scale computer simulations to provide thermodynamic properties when experiments are difficult to conduct.…

The use of high-dimensional regression techniques from machine learning has significantly improved the quantitative accuracy of interatomic potentials. Atomic simulations can now plausibly target quantitative predictions in a variety of…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-03-04 Danny Perez , Aparna P. A. Subramanyam , Ivan Maliyov , Thomas D. Swinburne