Related papers: Approximating the epidemic curve
The importation and subsequent establishment of novel pathogenic strains in a population is subject to a large degree of uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of the disease dynamics. Mathematical models need to take this stochasticity…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
The SIR model is a three-compartment model of the time development of an epidemic. After normalizing the dependent variables, the model is a system of two non-linear differential equations for the susceptible proportion $S$ and the infected…
We consider a threshold epidemic model on a clustered random graph with overlapping communities. In other words, our epidemic model is such that an individual becomes infected as soon as the proportion of her infected neighbors exceeds the…
We consider a spatial model related to bond percolation for the spread of a disease that includes variation in the susceptibility to infection. We work on a lattice with random bond strengths and show that with strong disorder, i.e. a wide…
We introduce a mathematical description of the impact of sociality in the spread of infectious diseases by integrating an epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic modeling of population-based contacts. The kinetic description leads to study…
The dynamics of diffusion in complex networks are widely studied to understand how entities, such as information, diseases, or behaviors, spread in an interconnected environment. Complex networks often present community structure, and tools…
The expected number of secondary infections arising from each index case, referred to as the reproduction or $R$ number, is a vital summary statistic for understanding and managing epidemic diseases. There are many methods for estimating…
In the past few decades, the frequency of pandemics has been increased due to the growth of urbanization and mobility among countries. Since a disease spreading in one country could become a pandemic with a potential worldwide humanitarian…
Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…
can evolve simultaneously. For the information-driven adaptive process, susceptible (infected) individuals who have abilities to recognize the disease would break the links of their infected (susceptible) neighbors to prevent the epidemic…
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…
Random walk is one of the basic mechanisms found in many network applications. We study the epidemic spreading dynamics driven by biased random walks on complex networks. In our epidemic model, each time infected nodes constantly spread…
We study a model for the spread of an infectious disease which incorporates spatial and temporal effects. The model is a delayed multi-type branching process in which types represent geographic regions while infected individuals reproduce…
Since the start of the still ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, there have been many modeling efforts to assess several issues of importance to public health. In this work, we review the theory behind some important mathematical models that have…
We study a simple case of the susceptible-weakened-infected-removed model in regular random graphs in a situation where an epidemic starts from a finite fraction of initially infected nodes (seeds). Previous studies have shown that,…
We study extended infection fronts advancing over a spatially uniform susceptible population by solving numerically a diffusive Kermack McKendrick SIR model with a dichotomous spatially random transmission rate, in two dimensions. We find a…
Infection dynamics have been studied extensively on complex networks, yielding insight into the effects of heterogeneity in contact patterns on disease spread. Somewhat separately, metapopulations have provided a paradigm for modeling…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
Many countries have experienced at least two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The second wave is far more dangerous as distinct strains appear more harmful to human health, but it stems from the complacency about the first wave. This paper…