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The gambler's ruin problem for correlated random walks (CRW), both with and without delays, is addressed using the Optional Stopping Theorem for martingales. We derive closed-form expressions for the ruin probabilities and the expected game…
We introduce the concept of budget games. Players choose a set of tasks and each task has a certain demand on every resource in the game. Each resource has a budget. If the budget is not enough to satisfy the sum of all demands, it has to…
The recent "correlation breakdown" in the modeling of credit default swaps, in which model correlations had to exceed 100% in order to reproduce market prices of supersenior tranches, is analyzed and argued to be a fundamental market…
The goal of the paper is to introduce a set of problems which we call mean field games of timing. We motivate the formulation by a dynamic model of bank run in a continuous-time setting. We briefly review the economic and game theoretic…
We address the common problem of calculating intervals in the presence of systematic uncertainties. We aim to investigate several approaches, but here describe just a Bayesian technique for setting upper limits. The particular example we…
Consider an insurance company exposed to a stochastic economic environment that contains two kinds of risk. The first kind is the insurance risk caused by traditional insurance claims, and the second kind is the financial risk resulting…
This paper builds a model of interactive belief hierarchies to derive the conditions under which judging an arbitrage opportunity requires Bayesian market participants to exercise their higher-order beliefs. As a Bayesian, an agent must…
We study a nonlinear system of partial differential equations arising in macroeconomics which utilizes a mean field approximation. This system together with the corresponding data, subject to two moment constraints, is a model for debt and…
This paper analyzes the 1/3 Financial Rule, a method of allocating income equally among debt repayment, savings, and living expenses. Through mathematical modeling, game theory, behavioral finance, and technological analysis, we examine the…
We define and study a lending game to model the interbank money market, in which lending banks strategically allocate their cash to borrowing banks. The interest rate offered by each borrowing bank is within the interest rate corridor set…
We present here a new extended model of the gambler's ruin problem by incorporating delays in receiving of rewards and paying of penalties. When there is a difference between two delays, an exact analysis of the ruin probability is…
We study incentive design when multiple principals simultaneously design mechanisms for their respective teams in environments with strategic spillovers. In this environment, each principal's set of incentive-compatible mechanisms--those…
This paper presents two case studies of data sets where the main inferential goal is to characterize time-varying patterns in model structure. Both of these examples are seen to be general cases of the so-called "partition problem," where…
We investigate the performance of the Kelly rule in a setting in which the dynamics of the return is represented by a time change process. We find that in this general semi-martingale setting the Kelly rule does not maximize the average…
Irrational numbers of bounded type have several equivalent characterizations. They have bounded partial quotients in terms of arithmetic characterization and in the dynamics of the circle rotation, the rescaled recurrence time to $r$-ball…
Control problems not admitting the dynamic programming principle are known as time-inconsistent. The game-theoretic approach is to interpret such problems as intrapersonal dynamic games and look for subgame perfect Nash equilibria. A…
Inheritances, divorces or liquidations of companies require common assets to be divided among the entitled parties. Legal methods usually consider the market value of goods, while fair division theory takes into account the parties'…
Westudy how a planner can design dynamic interventions to overcome status-quo inertia in living temporal games, where strategic agents control their state (active, sleep, partially dead) on a temporal network. Building on the…
Inspired by Strotz's consistent planning strategy, we formulate the infinite horizon mean-variance stopping problem as a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium in order to determine time consistent strategies with no regret. Equilibria among…
It is shown that absence of arbitrage opportunity in financial markets is a particular case of existence of uncertainty in decision system. Absence of arbitrage opportunity is considered in the sense of the Arrow-Debreu model of financial…