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Recent reports have described that learning Bayesian networks are highly sensitive to the chosen equivalent sample size (ESS) in the Bayesian Dirichlet equivalence uniform (BDeu). This sensitivity often engenders some unstable or…
Graph Neural Networks (GNN) provide a powerful framework that elegantly integrates Graph theory with Machine learning for modeling and analysis of networked data. We consider the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in predictions of GNN…
One of the main concepts in quantum physics is a density matrix, which is a symmetric positive definite matrix of trace one. Finite probability distributions are a special case where the density matrix is restricted to be diagonal. Density…
The behavior of many Bayesian models used in machine learning critically depends on the choice of prior distributions, controlled by some hyperparameters that are typically selected by Bayesian optimization or cross-validation. This…
Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…
Quantifying predictive uncertainty of neural networks has recently attracted increasing attention. In this work, we focus on measuring uncertainty of graph neural networks (GNNs) for the task of node classification. Most existing GNNs model…
The paper proposes a novel model assessment paradigm aiming to address shortcoming of posterior predictive $p-$values, which provide the default metric of fit for Bayesian structural equation modelling (BSEM). The model framework of the…
When fine-tuning Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to new data, DNNs are prone to overwriting network parameters required for task-specific functionality on previously learned tasks, resulting in a loss of performance on those tasks. We propose…
It is a relatively well-known fact that in problems of Bayesian model selection improper priors should, in general, be avoided. In this paper we derive a proper and parsimonious uniform prior for regression coefficients. We then use this…
The recently developed semi-parametric generalized linear model (SPGLM) offers more flexibility as compared to the classical GLM by including the baseline or reference distribution of the response as an additional parameter in the model.…
In this study, we present a multi-class graphical Bayesian predictive classifier that incorporates the uncertainty in the model selection into the standard Bayesian formalism. For each class, the dependence structure underlying the observed…
Proving algorithm-dependent generalization error bounds for gradient-type optimization methods has attracted significant attention recently in learning theory. However, most existing trajectory-based analyses require either restrictive…
The Bayesian framework is ideally suited for induction problems. The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true distribution $\mu$ of the sequences…
This paper addresses the classic problem of parameter estimation (PE) in multimachine power system models. Such models are typically described by a set of nonlinear differential-algebraic equations (DAE), where generator physics and network…
Predictive uncertainty quantification is crucial for reliable decision-making in various applied domains. Bayesian neural networks offer a powerful framework for this task. However, defining meaningful priors and ensuring computational…
An imprecise Bayesian nonparametric approach to system reliability with multiple types of components is developed. This allows modelling partial or imperfect prior knowledge on component failure distributions in a flexible way through…
Bayesian neural networks (BNN) and deep ensembles are principled approaches to estimate the predictive uncertainty of a deep learning model. However their practicality in real-time, industrial-scale applications are limited due to their…
This paper proposes a model learning Semi-parametric relationships in an Expert Bayesian Network (SEBN) with linear parameter and structure constraints. We use Gaussian Processes and a Horseshoe prior to introduce minimal nonlinear…
In the event of a nuclear accident, or the detonation of a radiological dispersal device, quickly locating the source of the accident or blast is important for emergency response and environmental decontamination. At a specified time after…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide a convenient framework for specifying function-space priors, making them a natural choice for modeling uncertainty. In contrast, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer greater scalability and extendability…