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Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly used to model animal movement data and infer aspects of animal behavior. An HMM assumes that each data point from a time series of observations stems from one of $N$ possible states. The states are…
Stochastic volatility models are the backbone of financial engineering. We study both continuous time diffusions as well as discrete time models. We propose two novel approaches to estimating stochastic volatility diffusions, one using…
Working on the daily closing prices and logreturns, in this paper we deal with the use of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to forecast the price of the EUR/USD Futures. The aim of our work is to understand how the HMMs describe different…
Motivated by Hubert's segmentation procedure we discuss the application of hidden Markov models (HMM) to the segmentation of hydrological and enviromental time series. We use a HMM algorithm which segments time series of several hundred…
Recent years have seen the rise of convolutional neural network techniques in exemplar-based image synthesis. These methods often rely on the minimization of some variational formulation on the image space for which the minimizers are…
Mixture models are a fundamental tool in applied statistics and machine learning for treating data taken from multiple subpopulations. The current practice for estimating the parameters of such models relies on local search heuristics…
Deep directed generative models have attracted much attention recently due to their expressive representation power and the ability of ancestral sampling. One major difficulty of learning directed models with many latent variables is the…
This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are one of the most fundamental and widely used statistical tools for modeling discrete time series. In general, learning HMMs from data is computationally hard (under cryptographic assumptions), and…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and conditional random fields (CRFs) are two popular techniques for modeling sequential data. Inference algorithms designed over CRFs and HMMs allow estimation of the state sequence given the observations. In…
Determining entropy rates of stochastic processes is a fundamental and difficult problem, with closed-form solutions known only for specific cases. This paper pushes the state-of-the-art by solving the problem for Hidden Markov Models…
We consider a hidden Markov model with multiple observation processes, one of which is chosen at each point in time by a policy---a deterministic function of the information state---and attempt to determine which policy minimises the…
The principle of maximum entropy provides a useful method for inferring statistical mechanics models from observations in correlated systems, and is widely used in a variety of fields where accurate data are available. While the assumptions…
Effective and efficient malware detection is at the forefront of research into building secure digital systems. As with many other fields, malware detection research has seen a dramatic increase in the application of machine learning…
There is an increase in interest to model driving maneuver patterns via the automatic unsupervised clustering of naturalistic sequential kinematic driving data. The patterns learned are often used in transportation research areas such as…
Language models based on deep neural networks and traditional stochastic modelling have become both highly functional and effective in recent times. In this work, a general survey into the two types of language modelling is conducted. We…
We propose a copula-based extension of the hidden Markov model (HMM) which applies when the observations recorded at each time in the sample are multivariate. The joint model produced by the copula extension allows decoding of the hidden…
We consider the problem of sequential detection of a change in the statistical behavior of a hidden Markov model. By adopting a worst-case analysis with respect to the time of change and by taking into account the data that can be accessed…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are fundamental for modeling sequential data, yet learning their parameters from observations remains challenging. Classical methods like the Baum-Welch algorithm are computationally intensive and prone to local…
Deep learning achieves remarkable generalization capability with overwhelming number of model parameters. Theoretical understanding of deep learning generalization receives recent attention yet remains not fully explored. This paper…