Related papers: Predictability and suppression of extreme events i…
Extreme events are unusual and rare large-amplitude fluctuations that occur can unexpectedly in nonlinear dynamical systems. Events above the extreme event threshold of the probability distribution of a nonlinear process characterize…
Extreme events, such as rogue waves, earthquakes and stock market crashes, occur spontaneously in many dynamical systems. Because of their usually adverse consequences, quantification, prediction and mitigation of extreme events are highly…
Power-law distributions are typical macroscopic features occurring in almost all complex systems observable in nature. As a result, researchers in quantitative analyses must often generate random synthetic variates obeying power-law…
Extreme events gain the attention of researchers due to their utmost importance in various contexts ranging from finance to climatology. This brings such recurrent events to the limelight of attention in interdisciplinary research. A…
We investigate the predictability of extreme events in a dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a small world topology. Due to the mechanism of self-organized criticality, it is impossible to predict the magnitude of the next event…
Extreme events have an important role which is sometime catastrophic in a variety of natural phenomena including climate, earthquakes and turbulence, as well as in man-made environments like financial markets. Statistical analysis and…
We numerically show that extreme events induced by parameter mismatches or noise in coupled oscillatory systems can be anticipated and suppressed before they actually occur. We show this in a main system unidirectionally coupled to an…
Predicting extreme events in chaotic systems, characterized by rare but intensely fluctuating properties, is of great importance due to their impact on the performance and reliability of a wide range of systems. Some examples include…
We study the impact of the coupling topology on the ability of various networked dynamical systems to generate extreme events. By determining the coupling strength that is necessary to generate an extreme event in the collective dynamics of…
Prediction in complex systems at criticality is believed to be very difficult, if not impossible. Of particular interest is whether earthquakes, whose distribution follows a power law (Gutenberg-Richter) distribution, are in principle…
Extreme events that arise spontaneously in chaotic dynamical systems often have an adverse impact on the system or the surrounding environment. As such, their mitigation is highly desirable. Here, we introduce a novel control strategy for…
We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…
Extreme event are sudden large-amplitude changes in the state or observables of chaotic nonlinear systems, which characterize many scientific phenomena. Because of their violent nature, extreme events typically have adverse consequences,…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…
Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the…
An extreme event is a sudden and violent change in the state of a nonlinear system. In fluid dynamics, extreme events can have adverse effects on the system's optimal design and operability, which calls for accurate methods for their…
The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…
Understanding and predicting uncertain things are the central themes of scientific evolution. Human beings revolve around these fears of uncertainties concerning various aspects like a global pandemic, health, finances, to name but a few.…
In many real world chaotic systems, the interest is typically in determining when the system will behave in an extreme manner. Flooding and drought, extreme heatwaves, large earthquakes, and large drops in the stock market are examples of…
The occurrence of some extreme events (such as marine heatwaves or exceptional circulations) can cause other extreme events (such as heatwave, drought and flood). These concurrent extreme events have a great impact on environment and human…