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Oft-cited causes of mini-flash crashes include human errors, endogenous feedback loops, the nature of modern liquidity provision, fundamental value shocks, and market fragmentation. We develop a mathematical model which captures aspects of…
When complex systems are driven to extinction by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To…
We compare two models of corporate default by calculating the Jeffreys-Kullback-Leibler divergence between their predicted default probabilities when asset correlations are either high or low. Our main results show that the divergence…
Conditions of Stability for explicit finite difference scheme and some results of numerical analysis for a unified 2 factor model of structural and reduced form types for corporate bonds with fixed discrete coupon are provided. It seems to…
Stylized facts can be regarded as constraints for any modeling attempt of price dynamics on a financial market, in that an empirically reasonable model has to reproduce these stylized facts at least qualitatively. The dynamics of market…
The classical DICE model is a widely accepted integrated assessment model for the joint modeling of economic and climate systems, where all model state variables evolve over time deterministically. We reformulate and solve the DICE model as…
Concerning general multi-agent systems with limited communication, this paper proposes distributed formation control protocols under adaptive event-triggered schemes to operate affine transformations of nominal formations. To accommodate…
This paper proposes a procedure to control an uncertain discrete-time networked control system through a limited stabilizing input information. The system is primarily affected by the time-varying, norm bounded, mismatched parametric…
We analyse time series of CDS spreads for a set of major US and European institutions on a pe- riod overlapping the recent financial crisis. We extend the existing methodology of {\epsilon}-drawdowns to the one of joint {\epsilon}-drawups,…
Assessing the causal effect of time-varying exposures on recurrent event processes is challenging in the presence of a terminating event. Our objective is to estimate both the short-term and delayed marginal causal effects of exposures on…
Credit risk stress testing has become an important risk management device which is used both by banks internally and by regulators. Stress testing is complex because it essentially means projecting a bank's full balance sheet conditional on…
Explicitly taking into account the risk incurred when borrowing at a shorter tenor versus lending at a longer tenor ("roll-over risk"), we construct a stochastic model framework for the term structure of interest rates in which a frequency…
The main purpose of this paper is to extend the information-based asset-pricing framework of Brody-Hughston-Macrina to a more general set-up. We include a wider class of models for market information and in contrast to the original paper,…
Credit risk assessment is a crucial aspect of financial decision-making, enabling institutions to predict the likelihood of default and make informed lending decisions. Two prominent methodologies in credit risk modeling are logistic…
In this paper we introduce a class of information-based models for the pricing of fixed-income securities. We consider a set of continuous- time information processes that describe the flow of information about market factors in a monetary…
While transformer-based foundation models excel at forecasting routine patterns, two questions remain: do they internalize semantic concepts such as market regimes, or merely fit curves? And can their internal representations be leveraged…
The scope of financial systemic risk research encompasses a wide range of interbank channels and effects, including asset correlation shocks, default contagion, illiquidity contagion, and asset fire sales. This paper introduces a financial…
The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical…
The proposed model is aimed to reveal important patterns in the behavior of a simplified financial system. The patterns could be detected as regular cycles consisting of debt bubbles and crises. Financial cycles have a well defined…
Event-based state estimation can achieve estimation quality comparable to traditional time-triggered methods, but with a significantly lower number of samples. In networked estimation problems, this reduction in sampling instants does,…