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We study the first-passage dynamics of a non-Markovian stochastic process with time-averaged feedback, which we model as a one-dimensional Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process wherein the particle drift is modified by the empirical mean of its…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-16 Francesco Coghi , Romain Duvezin , John S. Wettlaufer

In this paper, we investigate the consistency and asymptotic efficiency of an estimator of the drift matrix, $F$, of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes that are not necessarily stable. We consider all the cases. (1) The eigenvalues of $F$ are in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-27 Gopal K. Basak , Philip Lee

In this paper, we investigate the parameter estimation for threshold Ornstein$\mathit{-}$Uhlenbeck processes. Least squares method is used to obtain continuous-type and discrete-type estimators for the drift parameters based on continuous…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-28 Yuecai Han , Dingwen Zhang

We consider the parameter estimation problem for the non-ergodic fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process defined as $dX_t=\theta X_tdt+dB_t,\ t\geq0$, with a parameter $\theta>0$, where $B$ is a fractional Brownian motion of Hurst index…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-03-01 Rachid Belfadli , Khalifa Es-Sebaiy , Youssef Ouknine

In this paper, we consider an ergodic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with jumps driven by a Brownian motion and a compensated Poisson process, whose drift and diffusion coefficients as well as its jump intensity depend on unknown parameters.…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-14 Ngoc Khue Tran

Using the path integral representation of the non-equilibrium dynamics, we compute the most probable path between arbitrary starting and final points, followed by an active particle driven by persistent noise. We focus our attention on the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-15 Andrea Crisanti , Matteo Paoluzzi

Given the observation of a high-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process in continuous time, we proceed to the inference of the drift parameter under a row-sparsity assumption. Towards that aim, we consider the negative log-likelihood of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-12 Stéphane Gaïffas , Gustaw Matulewicz

Assuming that a reflected Ornstein-Uhlenbeck state process is observed at discrete time instants, we propose generalized moment estimators to estimate all drift and diffusion parameters via the celebrated ergodic theorem. With the sampling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-14 Yaozhong Hu , Yuejuan Xi

In this paper we investigate a class of nonautonomous linear parabolic problems with time depending Ornstein-Uhlenbeck operators. We study the asymptotic behavior of the associated evolution operator and evolution semigroup in the periodic…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2014-02-26 Matthias Geissert , Alessandra Lunardi

We consider the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, a stochastic process widely used in finance, physics, and biology. Parameter estimation of the OU process is a challenging problem. Thus, we review traditional tracking methods and compare…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-24 Jacob Fein-Ashley

Stochastic differential equations such as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process have long been used to model realworld probablistic events such as stock prices and temperature fluctuations. While statistical methods such as Maximum Likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Aroon Sankoh , Victor Wickerhauser

Fluctuations play an important role in the dynamics of stochastic systems. In particular, for small systems, the most probable thermodynamic quantities differ from their averages because of the fluctuations. Using the Onsager Machlup…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-06-16 Sandipan Dutta

We examine a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process that perturbs an unknown Lipschitz-continuous drift and aim to estimate the drift's value at a predetermined time horizon by sampling the path of the process. Due to the time varying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-20 Enrico Bernardi , Alberto Lanconelli , Christopher S. A. Lauria , Berk Tan Perçin

Consider a periodic, mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $X=\{X_t,t\geq0\}$ of the form $d X_{t}=\left(L(t)+\alpha X_{t}\right) d t+ dB^H_{t}, \quad t \geq 0$, where $L(t)=\sum_{i=1}^{p}\mu_i\phi_i (t)$ is a periodic parametric…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-02 Rachid Belfadli , Khalifa Es-Sebaiy , Fatima-Ezzahra Farah

We study asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators for Heston models based on continuous time observations of the log-price process. We distinguish three cases: subcritical (also called ergodic), critical and supercritical. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-25 Matyas Barczy , Gyula Pap

We propose a non-Gaussian operator-valued extension of the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility dynamics, defined as the square-root of an operator-valued Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with Levy noise and bounded drift. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-25 Fred Espen Benth , Barbara Ruediger , Andre Suess

We use asymptotic methods from the theory of differential equations to obtain an analytical expression for the survival probability of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a potential defined over a broad domain. We form a uniformly…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-11-26 L. T. Giorgini , W. Moon , J. S. Wettlaufer

We investigate the problem of estimating the drift parameter of a high-dimensional L\'evy-driven Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process under sparsity constraints. It is shown that both Lasso and Slope estimators achieve the minimax optimal rate of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-17 Niklas Dexheimer , Claudia Strauch

Superpositions of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes allow a flexible dependence structure, including long range dependence for OU-type processes. Their complex asymptotics are governed by three effects: the behavior of the L\'evy measure both at…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-25 Danijel Grahovac , Peter Kevei

We identify generic protocols achieving optimal power extraction from a single active particle subject to continuous feedback control under the assumption that its spatial trajectory, but not its instantaneous self-propulsion force, is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-11-08 Luca Cocconi , Jacob Knight , Connor Roberts