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Spatial Monte Carlo integration (SMCI) is an extension of standard Monte Carlo integration and can approximate expectations on Markov random fields with high accuracy. SMCI was applied to pairwise Boltzmann machine (PBM) learning, with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-28 Muneki Yasuda , Kei Uchizawa

The "backward simulation" of a stochastic process is defined as the stochastic dynamics that trace a time-reversed path from the target region to the initial configuration. If the probabilities calculated by the original simulation are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-01-29 Shinichi Takayanagi , Yukito Iba

We consider the inverse reinforcement learning problem, that is, the problem of learning from, and then predicting or mimicking a controller based on state/action data. We propose a statistical model for such data, derived from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-11-27 Sumeetpal S. Singh , Nicolas Chopin , Nick Whiteley

In this paper we present a new way of predicting the performance of a reinforcement learning policy given historical data that may have been generated by a different policy. The ability to evaluate a policy from historical data is important…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-04-05 Philip S. Thomas , Emma Brunskill

The trace of a matrix function f(A), most notably of the matrix inverse, can be estimated stochastically using samples< x,f(A)x> if the components of the random vectors x obey an appropriate probability distribution. However such a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-26 Andreas Frommer , Mostafa Nasr Khalil , Gustavo Ramirez-Hidalgo

The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is widely used in various fields as a powerful numerical integration technique for systems with many degrees of freedom. In MCMC methods, probabilistic state transitions can be considered as a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-11-11 Hidemaro Suwa , Synge Todo

This paper studies the problem of data collection for policy evaluation in Markov decision processes (MDPs). In policy evaluation, we are given a target policy and asked to estimate the expected cumulative reward it will obtain in an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Subhojyoti Mukherjee , Josiah P. Hanna , Robert Nowak

Making changes to a program to optimize its performance is an unscalable task that relies entirely upon human intuition and experience. In addition, companies operating at large scale are at a stage where no single individual understands…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-08 Don M. Dini

A promising way to improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning is model-based methods, in which many explorations and evaluations can happen in the learned models to save real-world samples. However, when the learned model has a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-14 Haoxin Lin , Yihao Sun , Jiaji Zhang , Yang Yu

We provide performance guarantees for a variant of simulation-based policy iteration for controlling Markov decision processes that involves the use of stochastic approximation algorithms along with state-of-the-art techniques that are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-17 Anna Winnicki , R. Srikant

We present foundations for using Model Predictive Control (MPC) as a differentiable policy class for reinforcement learning in continuous state and action spaces. This provides one way of leveraging and combining the advantages of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-15 Brandon Amos , Ivan Dario Jimenez Rodriguez , Jacob Sacks , Byron Boots , J. Zico Kolter

Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-08-25 Brendan Tracey , David Wolpert , Juan J. Alonso

Matrix factorization (MF) is a versatile learning method that has found wide applications in various data-driven disciplines. Still, many MF algorithms do not adequately scale with the size of available datasets and/or lack…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-30 Abhishek Agarwal , Jianhao Peng , Olgica Milenkovic

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Isha Puri , Shivchander Sudalairaj , Guangxuan Xu , Kai Xu , Akash Srivastava

We propose a Monte Carlo sampler from the reverse diffusion process. Unlike the practice of diffusion models, where the intermediary updates -- the score functions -- are learned with a neural network, we transform the score matching…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-14 Xunpeng Huang , Hanze Dong , Yifan Hao , Yi-An Ma , Tong Zhang

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a widely used approach for policy improvement through search with increasing popularity for real world applications. Due to the sequential and deterministic nature of its search, runtime-scaling of MCTS…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Yaniv Oren , Viliam Vadocz , Joery A. de Vries , Wendelin Böhmer , Matthijs T. J. Spaan , Hendrik Baier

Gradient-based methods are often used for policy optimization in deep reinforcement learning, despite being vulnerable to local optima and saddle points. Although gradient-free methods (e.g., genetic algorithms or evolution strategies) help…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-24 Xiaobai Ma , Katherine Driggs-Campbell , Zongzhang Zhang , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Keeping risk under control is often more crucial than maximizing expected rewards in real-world decision-making situations, such as finance, robotics, autonomous driving, etc. The most natural choice of risk measures is variance, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-09 Xiaoteng Ma , Shuai Ma , Li Xia , Qianchuan Zhao

We present an original simulation-based method to estimate likelihood ratios efficiently for general state-space models. Our method relies on a novel use of the conditional Sequential Monte Carlo (cSMC) algorithm introduced in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-10 Sinan Yıldırım , Christophe Andrieu , Arnaud Doucet

We introduce a significant improvement for a relatively new machine learning method called Transformation-Based Learning. By applying a Monte Carlo strategy to randomly sample from the space of rules, rather than exhaustively analyzing all…

cmp-lg · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Ken Samuel