Related papers: Hidden Markov Model Applications in Change-Point A…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for prediction- and information extraction tasks with an efficient inference scheme. It models categorical-valued time series that exhibit dynamics from multiple underlying patterns (e.g.…

A change points detection aims to catch an abrupt disorder in data distribution. Common approaches assume that there are only two fixed distributions for data: one before and another after a change point. Real-world data are richer than…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly used to model animal movement data and infer aspects of animal behavior. An HMM assumes that each data point from a time series of observations stems from one of $N$ possible states. The states are…

We present and analyse three online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and compare them with the Baldi-Chauvin Algorithm. Using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a measure of generalisation error we draw…

Machine learning and data mining techniques have been used extensively in order to detect credit card frauds. However, most studies consider credit card transactions as isolated events and not as a sequence of transactions. In this…

Hidden Markov models (HMM) have been widely used by scientists to model stochastic systems: the underlying process is a discrete Markov chain and the observations are noisy realizations of the underlying process. Determining the number of…

Dynamic modeling of longitudinal networks has been an increasingly important topic in applied research. While longitudinal network data commonly exhibit dramatic changes in its structures, existing methods have largely focused on modeling…

This paper presents a mathematical framework for causal nonlinear prediction in settings where observations are generated from an underlying hidden Markov model (HMM). Both the problem formulation and the proposed solution are motivated by…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are general purpose models for time-series data widely used across the sciences because of their flexibility and elegance. However fitting HMMs can often be computationally demanding and time consuming,…

Asset health monitoring continues to be of increasing importance on productivity, reliability, and cost reduction. Early Fault detection is a keystone of health management as part of the emerging Prognostics and Health Management (PHM)…

The Hidden Quantum Markov Model (HQMM) has significant potential for analyzing time-series data and studying stochastic processes in the quantum domain as an upgrading option with potential advantages over classical Markov models. In this…

Genetic sequence data are well described by hidden Markov models (HMMs) in which latent states correspond to clusters of similar mutation patterns. Theory from statistical genetics suggests that these HMMs are nonhomogeneous (their…

We study a phase transition in parameter learning of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We do this by generating sequences of observed symbols from given discrete HMMs with uniformly distributed transition probabilities and a noise level encoded…

Method of moment estimators exhibit appealing statistical properties, such as asymptotic unbiasedness, for nonconvex problems. However, they typically require a large number of samples and are extremely sensitive to model misspecification.…

We study automated intrusion detection in an IT infrastructure, specifically the problem of identifying the start of an attack, the type of attack, and the sequence of actions an attacker takes, based on continuous measurements from the…

The prevalence of hidden Markov models (HMMs) in various applications of statistical signal processing and communications is a testament to the power and flexibility of the model. In this paper, we link the identifiability problem with…

Bayesian change-point detection, together with latent variable models, allows to perform segmentation over high-dimensional time-series. We assume that change-points lie on a lower-dimensional manifold where we aim to infer subsets of…

In many areas of computational biology, hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been used to model local genomic features. In particular, coalescent HMMs have been used to infer ancient population sizes, migration rates, divergence times, and…

This paper proposes a new Bayesian multiple change-point model which is based on the hidden Markov approach. The Dirichlet process hidden Markov model does not require the specification of the number of change-points a priori. Hence our…

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the…