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The formalism of state estimation and hidden Markov models (HMMs) can simplify and clarify the discussion of stochastic thermodynamics in the presence of feedback and measurement errors. After reviewing the basic formalism, we use it to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-11-13 John Bechhoefer

Working on the daily closing prices and logreturns, in this paper we deal with the use of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to forecast the price of the EUR/USD Futures. The aim of our work is to understand how the HMMs describe different…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-09 Sara Rebagliati , Emanuela Sasso , Samuele Soraggi

In this work, we extend the idea of Quantum Markov chains [S. Gudder. Quantum Markov chains. J. Math. Phys., 49(7), 2008] in order to propose Quantum Hidden Markov Models (QHMMs). For that, we use the notions of Transition Operation…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-03-03 Michał Cholewa , Piotr Gawron , Przemysław Głomb , Dariusz Kurzyk

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are flexible tools for clustering dependent data coming from unknown populations, allowing nonparametric modelling of the population densities. Identifiability fails when the data is in fact independent and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-16 Kweku Abraham , Elisabeth Gassiat , Zacharie Naulet

The ability to predict the intentions of people based solely on their visual actions is a skill only performed by humans and animals. The intelligence of current computer algorithms has not reached this level of complexity, but there are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-02-07 Michael DelRose , Christian Wagner , Philip Frederick

Hidden Markov Models are widely used in classical computer science to model stochastic processes with a wide range of applications. This paper concerns the quantum analogues of these machines --- so-called Hidden Quantum Markov Models…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-03-05 Lewis A. Clark , Wei Huang , Thomas M. Barlow , Almut Beige

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-11 Matthew J. Johnson , Alan S. Willsky

The Baum-Welch (B-W) algorithm is the most widely accepted method for inferring hidden Markov models (HMM). However, it is prone to getting stuck in local optima, and can be too slow for many real-time applications. Spectral learning of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-27 Xiaoyuan Ma , Jordan Rodu

We introduce PyHHMM, an object-oriented open-source Python implementation of Heterogeneous-Hidden Markov Models (HHMMs). In addition to HMM's basic core functionalities, such as different initialization algorithms and classical observations…

Mathematical Software · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Fernando Moreno-Pino , Emese Sükei , Pablo M. Olmos , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez

In this work we propose a Bayesian framework for data fusion of multivariate signals which arises in imaging systems. More specifically, we consider the case where we have observed two images of the same object through two different imaging…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Olivier Feron , Ali Mohammad-Djafari

This paper presents a method of choosing number of states of a HMM based on number of critical points of the motion capture data. The choice of Hidden Markov Models(HMM) parameters is crucial for recognizer's performance as it is the first…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-10-31 Michał Cholewa , Przemysław Głomb

Over the last decade, hidden Markov models (HMMs) have become increasingly popular in statistical ecology, where they constitute natural tools for studying animal behavior based on complex sensor data. Corresponding analyses sometimes…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-15 Jan-Ole Koslik , Carlina C. Feldmann , Sina Mews , Rouven Michels , Roland Langrock

Ecological systems can often be characterised by changes among a finite set of underlying states pertaining to individuals, populations, communities, or entire ecosystems through time. Owing to the inherent difficulty of empirical field…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-12 Brett T. McClintock , Roland Langrock , Olivier Gimenez , Emmanuelle Cam , David L. Borchers , Richard Glennie , Toby A. Patterson

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are ubiquitous in time-series modelling, with applications ranging from chemical reaction modelling to speech recognition. These HMMs are often large, with high-dimensional memories. A recently-proposed…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-23 Rishi Sundar , Thomas Elliott

This work deals with the analysis of longitudinal ordinal responses. The novelty of the proposed approach is in modeling simultaneously the temporal dynamics of a latent trait of interest, measured via the observed ordinal responses, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-29 R. Colombi , S. Giordano , M. Kateri

A change point problem occurs in many statistical applications. If there exist change points in a model, it is harmful to make a statistical analysis without any consideration of the existence of the change points and the results derived…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-01-24 Xiaoping Shi , Yuehua Wu , Baisuo Jin

This research focuses on the algorithms and approaches for learning Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and compares HMM learning methods and algorithms. HMM is a statistical Markov model in which the system being modeled is assumed to be a Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Taha Mansouri , Mohamadreza Sadeghimoghadam , Iman Ghasemian Sahebi

In this paper, we propose an algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous hidden Markov model from aggregate observations. This problem arises when only the population level counts of the number of individuals at each time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Rahul Singh , Qinsheng Zhang , Yongxin Chen

We aim at the construction of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of assigned complexity (number of states of the underlying Markov chain) which best approximates, in Kullback-Leibler divergence rate, a given stationary process. We establish, under…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-07-03 Lorenzo Finesso , Angela Grassi , Peter Spreij

Cis-regulatory modules (CRMs) composed of multiple transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) control gene expression in eukaryotic genomes. Comparative genomic studies have shown that these regulatory elements are more conserved across…

Applications · Statistics 2007-09-14 Qing Zhou , Wing Hung Wong