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In lattice QCD the calculation of disconnected quark loops from the trace of the inverse quark matrix has large noise variance. A multilevel Monte Carlo method is proposed for this problem that uses different degree polynomials on a…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2024-02-02 Paul Lashomb , Ronald B. Morgan , Travis Whyte , Walter Wilcox

This paper sets up a methodology for approximately solving optimal investment problems using duality methods combined with Monte Carlo simulations. In particular, we show how to tackle high dimensional problems in incomplete markets, where…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-05-16 L C G Rogers , Pawel Zaczkowski

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating summary statistics to characterise biochemical reaction networks of interest. Such networks are often described using the framework of the Chemical Master Equation (CME). For…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-11-27 Christopher Lester , Christian A. Yates , Ruth E. Baker

We propose to use deep neural networks for generating samples in Monte Carlo integration. Our work is based on non-linear independent components estimation (NICE), which we extend in numerous ways to improve performance and enable its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-04 Thomas Müller , Brian McWilliams , Fabrice Rousselle , Markus Gross , Jan Novák

We consider a wide range of matrix models and study them using the Monte Carlo technique in the large $N$ limit. The results we obtain agree with exact analytic expressions and recent numerical bootstrap methods for models with one and two…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2022-04-05 Raghav G. Jha

Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-27 David Gunawan , Robert Kohn , David Nott

In this article we present and analyse new multilevel adaptations of stochastic approximation algorithms for the computation of a zero of a function $f\colon D \to \mathbb R^d$ defined on a convex domain $D\subset \mathbb R^d$, which is…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-04 Steffen Dereich , Thomas Mueller-Gronbach

Biochemical reaction networks are often modelled using discrete-state, continuous-time Markov chains. System statistics of these Markov chains usually cannot be calculated analytically and therefore estimates must be generated via…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-04-19 Daniel Wilson , Ruth E. Baker

The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-06 Fernando Acebes , M Pereda , David Poza , Javier Pajares , Jose M Galan

Kinetic equations play a major rule in modeling large systems of interacting particles. Uncertainties may be due to various reasons, like lack of knowledge on the microscopic interaction details or incomplete informations at the boundaries.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-05-01 Giacomo Dimarco , Lorenzo Pareschi

Graphs with large spectral gap are important in various fields such as biology, sociology and computer science. In designing such graphs, an important question is how the probability of graphs with large spectral gap behaves. A method based…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-18 Nen Saito , Yukito Iba

Cr\'epey, Frikha, and Louzi (2025) introduced a multilevel stochastic approximation scheme to compute the value-at-risk of a financial loss that is only simulatable by Monte Carlo. The best complexity of the scheme is in…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-14 Stéphane Crépey , Noufel Frikha , Azar Louzi , Jonathan Spence

In the past few years considerable progress has been made in Monte Carlo simulations of first-order phase transitions and in the analysis of the resulting finite-size data. In this paper special emphasis will be placed on multicanonical…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2007-05-23 Wolfhard Janke

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is a widely used algorithm for sampling from posterior distributions of complex Bayesian models. It can efficiently explore high-dimensional parameter spaces guided by simulated Hamiltonian flows. However, the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-29 Lingge Li , Andrew Holbrook , Babak Shahbaba , Pierre Baldi

We develop new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to estimate the expectation of the smallest eigenvalue of a stochastic convection-diffusion operator with random coefficients. The MLMC method is based on a sequence of finite element…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-13 Tiangang Cui , Hans De Sterck , Alexander D. Gilbert , Stanislav Polishchuk , Robert Scheichl

An investigation is in progress to evaluate extensively and quantitatively the possible benefits and drawbacks of new programming paradigms in a Monte Carlo simulation environment, namely in the domain of physics modeling. The prototype…

Monte Carlo experiments produce samples in order to estimate features of a given distribution. However, simultaneous estimation of means and quantiles has received little attention, despite being common practice. In this setting we…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-24 Nathan Robertson , James M. Flegal , Dootika Vats , Galin L. Jones

We leverage multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) to improve the performance of multi-step look-ahead Bayesian optimization (BO) methods that involve nested expectations and maximizations. Often these expectations must be computed by Monte Carlo…

In this paper we present a new approach to control variates for improving computational efficiency of Ensemble Monte Carlo. We present the approach using simulation of paths of a time-dependent nonlinear stochastic equation. The core idea…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2008-09-25 T. Borogovac , F. J. Alexander , P. Vakili

In this paper, we examine the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) procedure within a framework where the Monte Carlo estimator of the expectation is biased. We also introduce Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) in the SAA setup to enhance the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-29 Devang Sinha , Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty