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We present a new joint longitudinal and survival model aimed at estimating the association between the risk of an event and the change in and history of a biomarker that is repeatedly measured over time. We use cubic B-splines models for…
In this paper, we develop a Bayesian calendar-time survival model motivated by infectious disease prevention studies occurring during an epidemic, when the risk of infection can change rapidly as the epidemic curve shifts. For studies in…
Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing…
Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
Network surveys of key populations at risk for HIV are an essential part of the effort to understand how the epidemic spreads and how it can be prevented. Estimation of population values from the sample data has been probematical, however,…
The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal…
One of the cornerstones in combating the HIV pandemic is being able to assess the current state and evolution of local HIV epidemics. This remains a complex problem, as many HIV infected individuals remain unaware of their infection status,…
We establish a stochastic HIV/AIDS model for the individuals with protection awareness and reveal how the protection awareness plays its important role in the control of AIDS. We firstly show that there exists a global positive solution for…
Estimating new HIV infections is significant yet challenging due to the difficulty in distinguishing between recent and long-term infections. We demonstrate that HIV recency status (recent v.s. long-term) could be determined from the…
Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation leverages recency test results to determine the HIV incidence of a population of interest, where recency test uses biomarker profiles to infer whether an HIV-positive individual was "recently"…
The origin of the unusual incubation period distribution in the development of AIDS is largely unresolved. A key factor in understanding the observed distribution of latency periods, as well as the occurrence of infected individuals not…
The advent of accessible ancient DNA technology now allows the direct ascertainment of allele frequencies in ancestral populations, thereby enabling the use of allele frequency time series to detect and estimate natural selection. Such…
A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…
We develop a Bayesian statistical model and estimation methodology based on Forward Projection Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo in order to perform the calibration of a high-dimensional non-linear system of Ordinary Differential Equations…
Recent outbreak of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 has affected all of our lives in one way or the other. While medical researchers are working hard to find a cure and doctors/nurses to attend the affected individuals, measures such as…
Aggregate measures of family planning are used to monitor demand for and usage of contraceptive methods in populations globally, for example as part of the FP2030 initiative. Family planning measures for low- and middle-income countries are…
We present a comprehensive statistical methodological framework for estimating contextual exposure to HIV that includes local (grid-cell level) estimation of HIV prevalence and human activity space estimation based on GPS data. The…
Meta-analysis is widely used to integrate results from multiple experiments to obtain generalized insights. Since meta-analysis datasets are often heteroscedastic due to varying subgroups and temporal heterogeneity arising from experiments…
Recent work has focused attention on statistical inference for the population distribution of the number of sexual partners based on survey data. The characteristics of these distributions are of interest as components of mathematical…
We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for bi-variate data observed in time but with observation times which occur non-synchronously. In particular, this occurs in a wide variety of applications in finance, such as high-frequency…