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In this work we develop a stochastic model of acute HIV infection, based on the well-known standard model, that allows us to simulate the complex mutation pathways of HIV escape from multiple CTL responses. Under this model, we describe two…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-08-16 Sivan Leviyang

Naomi is a spatial evidence synthesis model used to produce district-level HIV epidemic indicators in sub-Saharan Africa. Multiple outcomes of policy interest, including HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-22 Adam Howes , Alex Stringer , Seth R. Flaxman , Jeffrey W. Imai-Eaton

Characterizing sexual contact networks is essential for understanding sexually transmitted infections, but principled parameter inference for mechanistic network models remains challenging. We develop a discrete-time simulation framework…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-30 Till Hoffmann , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Inference of the reproduction number through time is of vital importance during an epidemic outbreak. Typically, epidemiologists tackle this using observed prevalence or incidence data. However, prevalence and incidence data alone is often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-16 Alicia Gill , Jere Koskela , Xavier Didelot , Richard G. Everitt

Pathogen deep-sequencing is an increasingly routinely used technology in infectious disease surveillance. We present a semi-parametric Bayesian Poisson model to exploit these emerging data for inferring infectious disease transmission flows…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-06 Xiaoyue Xi , Simon EF Spencer , Matthew Hall , M Kate Grabowski , Joseph Kagaayi , Oliver Ratmann

This study conducts a comparative analysis of stochastic and deterministic models to better understand the dynamics of the HIV epidemic across genders. By incorporating gender-specific transmission probabilities and treatment uptake rates,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-30 Nuzhat Nuari Khan Rivu , Md Kamrujjaman , Shohel Ahmed

Causal effect estimation for dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) contributes to sequential decision making. However, censoring and time-dependent confounding under DTRs are challenging as the amount of observational data declines over time due…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-27 Adi Lin , Jie Lu , Junyu Xuan , Fujin Zhu , Guangquan Zhang

Like many chronic diseases, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is managed over time at regular clinic visits. At each visit, patient features are assessed, treatments are prescribed, and a subsequent visit is scheduled. There is a need for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-31 Arman Oganisian , Joseph Hogan , Edwin Sang , Allison DeLong , Ben Mosong , Hamish Fraser , Ann Mwangi

A central statistical problem in population genetics is to infer evolutionary and biological parameters such as the strength of natural selection and allele age from DNA samples extracted from a contemporary population. That all samples…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-02-19 Jaromir Sant , Paul A. Jenkins , Jere Koskela , Dario Spano

Aim of this manuscript is to show a simple method to infer the time-course of new COVID-19 infections (the most important information in order to establish the effect of containment strategies) from available aggregated data, such as number…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-21 Andrea Pugliese , Sara Sottile

Analysis of lifetime data from epidemiological studies or destructive testing often involves current status censoring, wherein individuals are examined only once and their event status is recorded only at that specific time point. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-15 Pavithra Hariharan , P. G. Sankaran

Incidence estimation of HIV infection can be performed using recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) results from a cross-sectional sample. This allows practitioners to understand population trends in the HIV epidemic without having to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Marlena Bannick , Deborah Donnell , Richard Hayes , Oliver Laeyendecker , Fei Gao

Stochastic volatility often implies increasing risks that are difficult to capture given the dynamic nature of real-world applications. We propose using arc length, a mathematical concept, to quantify cumulative variations (the total…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-21 Yan Gao , Rodney A. Sparapani , Sanjib Basu

To combat the HIV/AIDS pandemic effectively, targeted interventions among certain key populations play a critical role. Examples of such key populations include sex workers, people who inject drugs, and men who have sex with men. While…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-14 Jacob Parsons , Xiaoyue Niu , Le Bao

There are limited options to estimate the treatment effects of variables which are continuous and measured at multiple time points, particularly if the true dose-response curve should be estimated as closely as possible. However, these…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-11 Michael Schomaker , Helen McIlleron , Paolo Denti , Iván Díaz

This paper proposes an approach to training rough set models using Bayesian framework trained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The prior probabilities are constructed from the prior knowledge that good rough set models have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Tshilidzi Marwala , Bodie Crossingham

Understanding how stochastic gene expression is regulated in biological systems using snapshots of single-cell transcripts requires state-of-the-art methods of computational analysis and statistical inference. A Bayesian approach to…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-12-10 Yen Ting Lin , Nicolas E. Buchler

A simple deterministic model is proposed to represent the basic aspects concerning the effects of different antiretroviral treatment schedules on HIV incidence and prevalence of affected populations. The model mimics current treatment…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-09-29 L. F. Lopez , F. A. B. Coutinho , M. N. Burattini , E. Massad

There is wide interest in studying how the distribution of a continuous response changes with a predictor. We are motivated by environmental applications in which the predictor is the dose of an exposure and the response is a health…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-10 Antonio Canale , Daniele Durante , David Dunson

The integration of longitudinal measurements and survival time in statistical modeling offers a powerful framework for capturing the interplay between these two essential outcomes, particularly when they exhibit associations. However, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Taban Baghfalaki , Mojtaba Ganjali , Rui Martins