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We consider the extinction time of the contact process on increasing sequences of finite graphs obtained from a variety of random graph models. Under the assumption that the infection rate is above the critical value for the process on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-13 Bruno Schapira , Daniel Valesin

Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction.The…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-04-05 Georgy P. Karev , Irina G. Kareva

Here we treat the transmission of disease through a population as a standard Galton-Watson branching process, modified to take the presence of vaccination into account. Vaccination reduces the number of secondary infections produced per…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-15 Arni S. R. Srinivasa Rao , Chris T. Bauch

Consider a continuous-time binary branching process conditioned to have population size n at some time t, and with a chance p for recording each extinct individual in the process. Within the family tree of this process, we consider the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Lea Popovic

Consider a population whose size changes stepwise by its members reproducing or dying (disappearing), but is otherwise quite general. Denote the initial (non-random) size by $Z_0$ and the size of the $n$th change by $C_n$, $n= 1, 2,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-05 Peter Jagers , Sergei Zuyev

In this paper the asymptotic behavior of the conditional least squares estimators of the offspring mean matrix for a 2-type critical positively regular Galton-Watson branching process with immigration is described.We also study this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-10 Kristóf Körmendi , Gyula Pap

We study self-similarity in random binary rooted trees. In a well-understood case of Galton-Watson trees, a distribution on a space of trees is said to be self-similar if it is invariant with respect to the operation of pruning, which cuts…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-14 Yevgeniy Kovchegov , Ilya Zaliapin

In this paper we consider inhomogeneous Galton-Watson trees, and derive various moments for such processes: the number of vertices, the number of leaves, and the height of the tree. Also we make a simple condition of finiteness. We use…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-09 Jakob G. Rasmussen , Troels Pedersen , Rasmus L. Olsen

The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-04-28 Stuart T. Johnston , Matthew J. Simpson , Edmund J. Crampin

We consider diffusion processes x_{t} on the unit interval. Doob-transformation techniques consist of a selection of x_{t}-paths procedure. The law of the transformed process is the one of a branching diffusion system of particles, each…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2011-07-15 Thierry Huillet

We present a genealogy for superprocesses with a non-homogeneous quadratic branching mechanism, relying on a weighted version of the superprocess and a Girsanov theorem. We then decompose this genealogy with respect to the last individual…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-06-21 Jean-Francois Delmas , Olivier Hénard

The extinction time of an isolated population can be exponentially reduced by a periodic modulation of its environment. We investigate this effect using, as an example, a stochastic branching-annihilation process with a time-dependent…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-08-06 Michael Assaf , Alex Kamenev , Baruch Meerson

This paper proposes a novel numerical method for computing the density of the limit random variable associated with a supercritical Galton-Watson process. This random variable captures the effect of early demographic fluctuations and…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-08 Alice Cortinovis , Sophie Hautphenne , Stefano Massei

In this paper, we show that a Galton-Watson tree conditioned to have a fixed number of particles in generation $n$ converges in distribution as $n\rightarrow\infty$, and with this tool we study the span and gap statistics of a branching…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-24 Tianyi Bai , Pierre Rousselin

A multi-type branching process is defined as a random tree with labeled vertices, where each vertex produces offspring independently according to the same multivariate probability distribution. We demonstrate that in realizations of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-31 Jochem Hoogendijk , Ivan Kryven , Rik Versendaal

Take a continuous-time Galton-Watson tree. If the system survives until a large time $T$, then choose $k$ particles uniformly from those alive. What does the ancestral tree drawn out by these $k$ particles look like? Some special cases are…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-14 Simon C. Harris , Samuel G. G. Johnston , Matthew I. Roberts

Populations of competing biological species exhibit a fascinating interplay between the nonlinear dynamics of evolutionary selection forces and random fluctuations arising from the stochastic nature of the interactions. The processes…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-05-08 A. Dobrinevski , E. Frey

The asymptotic behavior, as $n\rightarrow \infty $ of the conditional distribution of the number of particles in a decomposable critical branching process $\mathbf{Z}% (m)=(Z_{1}(m),...,Z_{N}(m)),$ with $N$ types of particles at moment…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-03 V. A. Vatutin , E. E. Dyakonova

We consider a branching random walk initiated by a single particle at location 0 in which particles alternately reproduce according to the law of a Galton-Watson process and disperse according to the law of a driftless random walk on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-31 Steven P. Lalley , Yuan Shao

When four species compete stochastically in a cyclic way, the formation of two teams of mutually neutral partners is observed. In this paper we study through numerical simulations the extinction processes that can take place in this system…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-11-14 Ben Intoy , Michel Pleimling